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Thursday, April 30, 2015

Broken Window, Taxes and U.S. Economy

I've known about the relationship between federal tax receipt percentages measured against the GDP in the United States, so it was instructive for me to read on McClellan Financial Publications, an article talking about the fact taxes in the U.S. are "returning to Economy-Killing" levels.

Here's the main thesis of the article:

"Whenever total federal tax receipts have exceeded 18% of GDP, the result has always been a recession for the U.S. economy."

It goes on to state that "sometimes we can see that effect from a total federal take at less than 18%." The latter (below 18%) aren't as consistent as when the federal tax receipts are over 18%, but it's still a definite possibility that a recession is just around the corner.

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Friday, April 10, 2015

Is it Turquoise Hill's Time?

Financial news outlets were blaring out headlines and lead stories about an alleged agreement between the government of Mongolia and Rio Tinto (RIO) and Turquoise Hill (TRQ) concerning Oyu Tolgoi, the rich mineral resource in the country.


While it would be welcome news to investors if this is in fact the case, I will wait until I hear very clearly from Rio CEO Sam Walsh on his take in the deal.

Just recently Walsh stated very clearly that the final offer was on the table, and it's a check to me that he has been very quiet after the supposed blockbuster announcement from Mongolia’s Prime Minister Saikhanbileg, that past hindrances to the project have been resolved and the project is cleared to move ahead.


If that was really the case, it's very puzzling that there are no confirmations of this outside of a small story and line from Sky News in Australia, which asserted Walsh confirmed the story.
To me, this is too big of a story and impetus for it to be ignored by Rio and Turquoise Hill, if indeed a deal has been made.


Rest of story on Turquoise Hill and Oyu Tolgoi