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Friday, July 24, 2015

Why I Won't Sell Turquoise Hill

At a time when it appears there is nothing to stop the disintegration of the commodity bear market, my outlook for Turquoise Hill (NYSE:TRQ) remains strong.

My reasoning is I believe commodities are closing in on their lows in general, and are likely to begin a rebound in the not-too-distant future. But even if there is more downside to come for an extended period of time (meaning about a year or so), I don't see it having a negative impact on those holding a position in Turquoise Hill for the long term. That's because of the timing of the completion of the second phase construction at its flagship property Oyu Tolgoi.

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Monday, July 13, 2015

Nothing New from Janet Yellen

I'll have to say I wasn't disappointed in the talk given by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, as my expectations were appropriately low, and I wasn't surprised by the lack of anything new and some of the weasel words used to provide cover in case economic conditions in the second half are such that the Fed doesn't raise interest rates as Yellen has been leaning towards and most others expect.

Here's the wording she used to cover her actions if they end up different than she has signaled to the market:

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Monday, July 6, 2015

U.S. Workforce Participation Rate Won't Return To Its 2007 Level

The release of the latest report on the U.S. job market was underwhelming, and reinforces the thesis that the workforce participation rate in the country won't return to the levels enjoyed in 2007, when it stood at 66 percent.

Data show the number of Americans who have a job or are seeking a job has dropped to a 38-year low of 62.6 percent, down from 62.9 percent last year.

Growth rates confirm this trend is worsening, as job participation growth in 2007 was 1.1 percent, while in 2014 it shrunk to only 0.3 percent.

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Why Copper Prices Could Go Either Direction

Although copper prices per ton have been rebounding over the last couple of days, it isn't clear as to whether or not it has really found a bottom as some think, or it still has a way to go before bottoming out.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) is among those that believe copper isn't close to leveling off, as it projects it to drop to about $5,000 per ton over the next year; even after plunging about 9 percent so far in 2015.

In 2014 it was down 14 percent on the year.

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