Human Genome Sciences' (Nasdaq:HGSI) Benlysta to Peak at $3.6 Billion

Human Genome Sciences (Nasdaq:HGSI) has started to receive coverage from Gleacher & Company, and they're definitely bullish on HGSI based on the potential of Benlysta sales, which they see ultimately peaking at $3.6 billion annually.

Gleacher said, "In our view, the FDA will likely request HGSI to conduct post-marketing studies in these patients. With regard to African American patients, we think the sample size in Phase III trials was too small to draw a reliable conclusion and the FDA should defer that decision to physicians until Benlysta is studied in a prospectively designed trial in this specific population."

Approval for the drug is expected to come in March 2011, and should be a strong performer based on physician feedback and unmet demand.

One factor weighing on Benlysta is if there are restrictions for those with severe active lupus nephritis and CNS lupus. Gleacher believes there wont' be total restrictions and the concerns the stock will suffer from it are not justified at the levels being proffered.

Gleacher projects Benlysta global sales of over $1 billion by 2014, and should peak in about 2023 at $3.6 billion. The numbers are modeled on a price of $30,000 for Benlysta in the U.S. and $24,000 outside the U.S.

Considering them conservative numbers, Gleacher estimates for every price increase of $5,000 the price target of the company should increase by about $4.

Gleacher started Human Genome Sciences off with a "Buy" rating. They closed Wednesday at $24.63, up $0.36, or 1.48 percent. Gleacher has a price target of $30 on them.