Toll Bros. (NYSE:TOL) Makes Ticonderoga Nervous

With the estimates of Ticonderoga for closings of Toll Bros. (NYSE:TOL) coming in on the high end of estimates, it make them nervous because there are no expectations in backlog conversion.

Ticonderoga said, "We expected very little from this post-tax credit quarter, and we got it. Virtually every operating metric was just a bit below our expectations. The lone exception was on JVs, where a reversal of prior accruals helped. Guidance for closings next year put our estimate at the top of the company’s range, which makes us a bit nervous given that we are not forecasting an improvement in backlog conversion; our orders forecast is likely too optimistic versus their views."

Ticonderoga maintains a "Neutral" on Toll Bros., which closed Thursday at $18.87, up by $0.41, or 2.22 percent.