Toll Brothers' (NYSE:TOL) 2011 Looks Like 2010

Unfortunately for Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), it looks like their performance in 2011 is not going to change any from 2010.

Ticonderoga said, "Our biggest takeaway from TOL’s conference call was that the just started fiscal 2011 results could look eerily similar to 2010’s non-descript results. Given where the industry is and the duration it has been there, we do not view a repeat of this year as a good—nor desirable—thing. We believe this story is essentially in a state of animated suspension. Until TOL’s results look like the high-end retailer it is, we believe the equity is, at best, a middle-of-the-pack performer. In our view, relative valuation is not compelling, and the fundamentals provide no urgency to own this equity versus peers. We want to be clear: we do not believe this is a broken equity by any stretch, just one that has much heavy lifting to do before it can outperform the group.

"With revenues expected to be flattish this year (we forecast down 4%), the logical next place to turn for greater profits is on the cost side. However, the likelihood of significant improvement looks limited based on management commentary. We think Bob Toll makes a reasoned argument that the company has no desire to cut SG&A more for minimal gain while potentially sacrificing future growth. Given Toll's high touch business model, this makes sense."

Toll closed Friday at $18.86, dropping $0.01, or 0.05 percent. Volume was 50 percent over the 3-month daily average.