Travelers (NYSE:TRV), ACE (NYSE:ACE), Arch Capital (Nasdaq:ACGL) , PartnerRe (NYSE:PRE) Have Best P&C Outlook for 2011

Heading into 2011, Barclays (NYSE:BCS) says they see the outlook for the P&C insurance sector as "lackluster." Based on the management team differentiator, their favorite picks going forward are Travelers (NYSE:TRV), ACE (NYSE:ACE), Arch Capital (Nasdaq:ACGL) and PartnerRe (NYSE:PRE).

Barclays said, "Entering 2011, our outlook is lackluster for the P&C insurance sector. Positive factors include low valuations and strong capital positions. Challenges for the sector include declining pricing due to excess capital and slack demand, anticipated declines in EPS and ROEs, slowing book value growth, and potential increases in interest rates and inflation. Barring a major catastrophe loss, broad tightening in P&C commercial insurance and reinsurance pricing appears unlikely before 2013.

"Our highest conviction long ideas are Travelers, ACE Ltd, Arch Capital Group and PartnerRe Ltd because we believe these companies have superior management teams, can generate top-tier performance, and trade at attractive valuations. On the other hand, we recommend investors use the insurance brokers including MMC, AJG, and BRO as a source of funds because of expensive valuations and headwinds from soft P&C market conditions as well as a slow economic recovery. Separately, our outlook could become more favorable on shares of Bershire H (NYSE:BRK.B), Progressive (NYSE:PGR), and Chubb (NYSE:CB) if their valuations became more attractive.

"P&C insurers' book values could experience negative mark to market losses in 4Q10 (the first time in roughly one year) due to rising interest rates, which we estimate could be 5% of book value on average. P&C insurers with the highest impact to book value could be XL Capital (NYSE:XL) (-9% of BV), TRV (-8%) and Everest Re Group (NYSE:RE) (-7%). Berkshire Hathaway's book value, on the other hand, could benefit by about a 2% mark-to-market investment gain due to its higher exposure to equities.

"In addition, we are lowering our 2011 EPS outlook for Aon Corporation (NYSE:AON) and Arthur J Gallagher (NYSE:AJG) to reflect less margin expansion than previously anticipated. We are also raising our 2011 EPS estimate for PRE and FSR to reflect higher than projected share repurchase activity."

Travelers closed Monday at $55.45, up $0.27, or 0.49 percent. Ace closed at $60.96, down $0.09, or 0.15 percent. Arch Capital was down to $88.26, losing $0.40, or 0.45 percent. PartnerRe closed at $77.78, up $0.05, or 0.06 percent.