Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL), ReneSola (NYSE:SOL), JA Solar (Nasdaq:JASO), Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq:ESLR), Energy Conversion (Nasdaq:ENER) Outlook from Barcl

Barclays took a look at several companies within the solar industry, including Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL), ReneSola (NYSE:SOL), JA Solar (Nasdaq:JASO), Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq:ESLR), Energy Conversion (Nasdaq:ENER), and gave their outlook on them for 2011 EPS estimates.

Their favorites were Trina Solar and ReneSola, which they said tracked well on the risk-reward metric for EPS.

For JA Solar Holdings, Evergreen Solar and Energy Conversion Devices, they maintain near term caution on them.

Barclays said, "In this note, we take a look at 2011 EPS sensitivity in bull/bear case scenarios and also examine quarterly low cost capacity/supply demand outlook. Both Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) and ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) screen attractively on the risk-reward metric highlighted in the 2011 EPS analysis. Maintain near term caution on JA Solar Holdings, Evergreen Solar and Energy Conversion Devices.

"Second "gold rush" continues, however policy action inhibiting demand elasticity likely accelerating: Recall our demand thesis - greater availability of low cost supply, relatively attractive economics and upcoming subsidy cut catalysts could continue to drive demand upsides in 2011. Greater supply availability and stronger-than-expected demand in non-German markets are the primary factors driving demand upside and resilient pricing.

"Key Themes for 2011: (i) Poly/wafer supply constraints would likely continue in 2011, (ii) Vertical integration would become even more important in 2011, (iii) OEM business models would do well and growth in this segment could outstrip growth in traditional solar module segment, (iv) Bankability would act as a source of differentiation in order to drive volumes and not maintain pricing, (v) Equipment cycle may still have some legs (particularly poly/wafer equipment players) - capex budgets expected to increase in 2011, (vi) Demand upsides would likely continue, (vii) Investor sentiment could continue to get worse, (viii) Downstream acquisitions could become even more important, (ix) 2011 could see greater divergence in performance of winners/losers."

Trina closed Monday at $24.15, up by $0.44, or 1.86 percent. ReneSola closed at $9.36, gaining $0.31, or 3.43 percent. JA Solar ended the session at $7.57, up by $0.20, or 2.71 percent. Energy Conversion closed the day at $4.67, increasing $0.09, or 1.97 percent. Evergreen closed at $0.84, up by $0.05, or 6.33 percent.

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