ARIAD (NASDAQ:ARIA) Partner Merck (NYSE:MRK) Reporting Ridaforolimus Data in 1Q

With an approximate 60 percent chance of success for ridaforolimus, ARIAD Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARIA) looks good going forward, as partner Merck (NYSE:MRK) is poised to post their report in the first quarter, according to Jefferies (NYSE:JEF).

If it is successful the company is predicting a - $3/sh upside to current valuation and they're doing that by assigning a 90% probability to their - $500M WW peak sales estimate in sarcoma in 2020 and 70% probability to their - $650M in WW peak sales in endometrial cancer in 2020, with 20% royalty on total sales to ARIA, along with $65 million in potential regulatory milestones from Merck.

ARIAD Pharmaceuticals closed Wednesday at $5.23, up $0.13, or 2.55 percent. Jefferies raised their price target on them from $6 to $8.