Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Comstock (NYSE:CRK), Noble (NYSE:NBL), Rosetta (Nasdaq:ROSE) Previewed by FBR Capital

After meeting last week with management of Comstock (NYSE:CRK), Noble (NYSE:NBL) and Rosetta (Nasdaq:ROSE), FBR Capital gave their take on the companies.

FBR said, "Late last week, we visited three E&P management teams. We walked away excited about Noble Energy's 2011 drilling program, Rosetta Resources' Southern Alberta Basin (SAB) potential, and will closely monitor Comstock Resources' capital discipline promise and diversification attempt."

Comstock Resources (CRK): Haynesville restricted-rate wells continue to average 10 MMcf/d and are tracking about 7 Bcf estimated ultimate recovery (EUR)/well. The company plans to run five rigs in the Haynesville Shale beginning March 1. The company also, despite reporting about flat sequential production during 4Q10, is optimistic about delivering strong production growth in 2011. We note that Haynesville spot completion costs for the company are currently down by about $500,000 to $3.7 million. On the Eagle Ford, the company has drilled and completed two wells with a third well currently drilling. A second rig could be added by midyear to the Eagle Ford program.

Noble Energy (NBL): The Leviathan well should reach total depth (TD) near the end of Q111. Successful testing of the lower formation could have broader implications with regards to the presence of oil throughout the basin. The company plans to drill 2–4 exploratory wells in West Africa this year and expects to receive permits this year for finishing up its deepwater U.S. GOM Deep Blue, Santiago, and Gun Flint wells. Lastly, progress remains solid in its Niobrara project, with a 1,300-square-mile, 3-D survey planned for this year.

Rosetta Resources (ROSE): Of course, the story at current price levels is largely about SAB potential. With industry drilling result announcements on the U.S. side not expected until late 2Q11/3Q11, the market (including us) does not have much to go on. However, with industry acreage acquisition continuing to maintain its pace and well known names (majors and independents) entering the fray, we remain optimistic about the potential of the play.

Comstock closed Tuesday at $24.86, gaining $0.31, or 1.26 percent. Noble closed at $85.35, down $1.76, or 2.02 percent. Rosetta closed at $34.08, down $0.89, or 2.55 percent.

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