Friday, January 14, 2011

Goldman (NYSE:GS) Looks at AMERITRADE (Nasdaq:AMTD), E*TRADE (Nasdaq:ETFC), TradeStation Group (Nasdaq:TRAD), Schwab (Nasdaq:SCHW), Xpress Holdings (Nasdaq:OXPS)

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) gave an update on discount brokers and investment banks today, covering a plethora of companies, including AMERITRADE (Nasdaq:AMTD), E*TRADE (Nasdaq:ETFC), TradeStation Group (Nasdaq:TRAD), Schwab (Nasdaq:SCHW), Xpress Holdings (Nasdaq:OXPS) for discount brokers, and Duff & Phelps (NYSE:DUF), Evercore Partners (NYSE:EVR), Greenhill & Co (NYSE:GHL), Lazard (NYSE:LAZ), Jefferies (NYSE:JEF), Piper Jaffray (NYSE:PJC), Raymond James (NYSE:RJF), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), LPL Investment (Nasdaq:LPLA) and Stifel Nicolaus (NYSE:SF) for investment firms.

Overall Goldman believes there is a healthy outlook for the industry, although noting tailwinds could affect some of them.

Goldman noted, "Despite tailwinds, valuations appear full - The brokerage group looks poised to have a robust 2011, with our 2011 estimates implying 48% yoy EPS growth, led by boutique M&A firms EVR and GHL, as well as by PJC (given exposure to ECM issuance). Improving GDP growth (GS Global ECS Research estimates +3.4% in 2011) and higher equity markets should also lift retail-sensitive names such as SF and LPL, but sector valuations look full at 119% of 5-year average forward P/E.

"4Q10 may be tough, but 2011-12 look better - With the notable exception of LAZ, we lower our 4Q10 estimates for the Smid-cap Brokers due to muted trading activity levels and challenging muni market conditions. That said, we raise our 2011-12 estimates to reflect the favorable environment for M&A and ECM activity in 2011. We also raise our price targets for the group by an average of 11%, which are now based on our 2011 EPS targets or 4Q11 tangible book value estimates for the investment banks (JEF, MS, PJC, RJF, and SF)."

For Discount Brokers:

Goldman raises its price target on AMERITRADE (AMTD) (Buy) from $20 to $23, E*TRADE (ETFC) (Neutral) from $17 to $18, TradeStation Group (TRAD) (Neutral) from $6 to $7 and Schwab (SCHW) (Neutral) from $17 to $19. But, Goldman lowers options Xpress Holdings (OXPS) (Sell) from $16 to $15.

For Investment Firms:

Goldman raises its price target on Duff & Phelps (DUF) (Neutral) from $13 to $16, Evercore Partners (EVR) (Buy) from $35 to $41, Greenhill & Co (GHL) (Neutral) from $72 to $82, Lazard (LAZ) (Neutral) from $42 to $46, Jefferies (JEF) (Sell) from $23 to $24, Piper Jaffray (PJC) (Neutral) from $32 to $40, Raymond James (RJF) (Neutral) from $31 to $36, and Stifel Nicolaus (SF) (Buy) from $65 to $73.

Goldman maintains a Neutral rating on Morgan Stanley (MS) and $30 price target. LPL Investment (LPLA) stays a 'Buy' and $40 price target.

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