Lazard (NYSE:LAZ), Greenhill (NYSE:GHL), Evercore (NYSE:EVR) Previewed by Ticonderoga

Boutique brokers and asset managers Lazard (NYSE:LAZ), Greenhill (NYSE:GHL) and Evercore (NYSE:EVR) were previewed by Ticonderoga Securities for the fourth quarter.

Here's their outlook on the three:

Lazard (NYSE:LAZ) Q4 Preview. We expect EPS of $0.65 driven by seasonal strength in merger revenues and performance fees. In conjunction with appreciating asset levels, we are raising our 2011 EPS estimate to $2.52 from $2.48. We are also instituting a 2012 EPS estimate of $2.75. Our quarterly revenue estimate is $533 million with advisory comprising $297 million. We do believe the bi-annual conference call could provide more color around the outlook as well as improving cost efficiency. We remain bullish on shares. We reiterate our Buy rating and $45 price target. We note that LAZ's coverage ratio—estimated fees from current public backlog/our forward three-quarter (Q4'10, Q1'11 & Q2'11) M&A & restructuring revenue estimate—was 85% at the end of December vs. 87% on October 30, 2010.

Lowering Greenhill (NYSE:GHL) Q4, 2011 and Implementing 2012. We are lowering our Q4 EPS estimate to $0.35 from $0.57. The revision is reflective of negative valuation adjustments on Iridium, a slightly higher compensation ratio, and weaker than previously estimated advisory revenues. We are expecting Q4 advisory revenues of $61 million. We estimate that GHL completed 11 deals in the public backlog this quarter worth $17.3bn; this compares to 15 deals worth 28bn last quarter. We are also lowering our 2011 EPS estimate to $3.09 from $3.29 previously. The revision is reflective of a higher compensation ratio. Our full-year ratio is now 48.4% compared with 46.4% previously. We are instituting a 2012 estimate of $3.62. For full-year 2011 and 2012, we are modeling advisory revenue growth of 54% and 8%, respectively. Backlog coverage ended the period at 62% vs. 36% on October 30, 2010. We reiterate our Neutral rating.

Lowering Evercore (NYSE:EVR) Q4 and Raising 2011. We are lowering our Q4'10 EPS estimate to $0.20 from $0.35; our 2011 EPS estimate goes to $1.73 from $1.61, and we are instituting a 2012 EPS estimate of $2.27. The downward revision to our Q4 estimate is primarily driven by fewer than expected deal closings during the period; we expect i-banking revenues to be $59.4mm for the quarter, down from ~$100mm last quarter. For 2011, we are estimating a 43% increase in i-banking revenues vs. our 2010 estimate and an overall comp ratio of 59.6%, down from an estimate of 61.2% for 2010. EVR's backlog coverage ended the quarter at 88%, an improvement from 80% on October 30, 2010, and the best in the group.

Lazard closed Tuesday at $39.42, down $0.25, or 0.63 percent. Greenhill closed at $79.85, down $1.84, or 2.25 percent. Evercore closed at $34.19, down $1.37, or 3.85 percent.