Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Legg Mason (NYSE:LM), Artio (NYSE:ART), Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN) Get Look from Ticonderoga

Ticonderoga Securities has given their take on the outlook for Legg Mason (NYSE:LM), Artio Global Investors (NYSE:ART) and Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN) today.

Ticonderoga says, "Lowering Legg Mason (LM) on Higher Transaction Charge, Raising Outlook Modestly; Reiterate Sell. We are lowering our FQ3'11 GAAP EPS estimate to $0.33 from $0.40. The revision is reflective of higher transition-related expenses than previously modeled. Note the driver of the increase stems from severance payments to David Odenath, former head of Americas, who has since left the company. Reflective of better equity markets, we are raising our EPS estimates adjusted for restructuring. FQ3'11 is now $0.43 without restructuring, while FQ4'11 is now $0.48. Our calendar 2011 EPS estimate is now $1.73 without restructuring compared with $1.69 previously. We are modeling long-term outflows of $10 billion compared with $12.4 billion last quarter. We are also raising our price target to $28, or 14x our annualized March 2012 estimate."

"Raising Artio Global Investors (ART) Estimates on Market, But Relative Performance Continues to Pose Biggest Risk; Reiterate Sell. We are raising our Q4’10 and 2011 EPS estimates slightly to $0.42 and $1.68, respectively, from $0.41 and $1.61 previously. We are initiating a 2012 EPS estimate of $1.73. The increase for Q4’10 is largely driven by a higher than expected average AUM for the period. For Q4’10, we expect net outflows of roughly $3bn; this will likely be the worst quarter for flow since ART has been public. We believe that real risks are emerging for institutional flows. Three-year metrics are usually the barometer for institutions. According to Morningstar, ART’s two key international AUM strategies are in the bottom 13% and 36%, respectively. Any near-term turn in the equity markets and this stock is very vulnerable, in our opinion"

Franklin Resources (BEN) Remains Top Long; Reiterate Buy. Following BEN’s AUM release on January 10, we raised our calendar 2011 EPS estimate to $8.30 from $8.19 reflective of the 2.4% AUM beat vs. our expectations. Our price target is $135, or 16.3x our calendar 2011 EPS estimate; we are looking for $1.92 in FQ1'11.

Legg Mason was trading at $35.57, down $0.53, or 1.47 percent, as of 12:45 PM EST. Artio Global Investors was trading at $15.16, down $0.18, or 1.17 percent. Franklin Resources was at $120.53, losing $0.68, or 0.56 percent.

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