Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Medivation (NASDAQ:MDVN) Next Catalyst Should be Positive Says Global Hunter

A lot of uncertainty surrounds Medivation (NASDAQ:MDVN) and results from top-line Phase III Huntington (Horizon). Global Hunter believes there's a 60 percent chance there will be a positive outcome, which will be a significant catalyst for the company.

Global Hunter said, "We are updating our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to include free cash flow estimates through 2016. These changes raise our fair value estimate to $19. We view the next significant catalyst for the stock as potentially positive top-line Phase III Huntington’s (HORIZON) data release in H1:11 and as early as Q1:11. Based on powering of the study alone, we believe the probability of a positive outcome is 60%. We believe the Street, however, is not placing any value on this program as dimebon failed in a Phase III Alzheimer's study. In addition, an inflection point in the stock could occur in Q4:11 with release of the Phase III MDV3100 (AFFIRM) data. We continue to view the Alzheimer’s program as a call option and MDV3100 as downside support. At current levels, we believe MDVN has a compelling risk/reward profile and we recommend owning shares ahead of the 2011 catalysts."

Global Hunter Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Medivation, which closed Tuesday at $16.34, up $0.25, or 1.55 percent. Global raised their price target on them from $16 to $19.

No comments: