Major pharmaceuticals like Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY), Abbot (NYSE:ABT),Bristol-Myers (NYSE:BMY) and Merck (NYSE:MRK) will be EPS pressure over the next several years, as patents on major drugs expire at each of the companies.
Barclays says, "The U.S. Major Pharma industry careens to the edge of the Patent Cliff as the year 2011 unfolds. Throughout the next 24-36 months, we expect to see U.S. patent expiries on Lipitor (PFE), Zyprexa (LLY), TriCor (ABT), Plavix (BMY), Singulair (MRK), and Cymbalta (LLY). Further, we estimate the group will face an average of 5-10% in EPS downside pressure from additional U.S. Healthcare Reform measures and European pricing pressures in 2011. We expect limited upside to top-line and earnings guidance for the year. We believe this year will be critical for providing investors with a view beyond the cliff: will the industry be able to inflect its multiple trajectories after the 2011-2013 trough years?
"Rating based on long-term revenue and EPS growth: ABT (OW)(PT $55) and MRK (OW)(PT $41) have the highest estimated growth rate in 2011-2016 (revenue CAGRs of 4% and 1%, EPS CAGRs of 8% and 6%, respectively). Our projections are inclusive of recent pipeline setbacks (i.e. termination of ABT's Certriad and delay of ABT-874, reduced estimates for MRK's Vorapaxar and impact of the Johnson&Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) arbitration over Remicade). We are reducing our price target for ABT by 8% to $55 (from $60) and MRK by 5% to $41 (from $43), largely to reflect the sentimental negatives arising from the above-referenced setbacks, despite the continuity of our long-term views. We estimate PFE (OW)(PT $21) and BMY (OW)(PT $28) face -1% and -2% revenue declines during the 2011-2016 window and largely flat EPS trajectory. LLY (EW)(PT $39) looks least attractive, with our estimate of -3% revenue CAGR during the 2011-2016 window."
Merck closed Monday at $33.80, down $0.10, or 0.29 percent. Bristol-Myers closed at $26.00, dropping $0.06, or 0.23 percent. Abbot closed at $48.17, up $0.25, or 0.52 percent. Eli Lilly closed up at $34.78, gaining $0.02, or 0.06 percent. Pfizer ended the session at $18.45, up $0.09, or 0.50 percent.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY), Abbot (NYSE:ABT),Bristol-Myers (NYSE:BMY), Merck (NYSE:MRK), Face EPS Pressure on Expirations
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