Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Vale (Nasdaq:VALE), Ternium (NYSE:TX), CSN (EW) Top Iron Ore, Steel Picks for Barclays (NYSE:BCS)

Commenting on Latin America Metals & Mining, Barclays (NYSE:BCS) said their top pick for iron ore is Vale (Nasdaq:VALE), and for steel: Ternium (NYSE:TX) and CSN (EW).

Barclays says, "Iron ore - Record shipments to China; Strong exports to Europe; Japan flattish: Brazilian iron ore exports during December were the highest in 2010 (second highest ever) at 32.2Mt, +30% m/m...Flats steel imports surprisingly high: Flat steel imports amounted to 287kt, +3% m/m and roughly 2x higher y/y...Long steel imports ease - A positive signal that pricing discounts were effective: Long steel imports (ex-railway components /tubes) came in at 43kt in December, -38% m/m.

"Valuations and fundamentals still favor iron ore miners over steels, in our view. Although we were negatively surprised with the import data (for flats), we still believe the bounce trade in steels should continue until the earnings season, which we believe will be very weak (below expectations). We reiterate Vale (Overweight) as our high-conviction call for 2011, as we view valuation as attractive (on 5.5x EBITDA 11) and expect earnings upgrades. For steels, we prefer Ternium S.A. (Overweight) and CSN (EW)."

VALE S.A. was trading at $36.51, up $1.18, or 3.34 percent, as of 2:10 PM EST. Ternium was trading at $43.32, up $0.45, or 1.05, as of 1:50 PM EST.

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