Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Vertical Integration Not JA Solar's (NASDAQ:JASO) Strength, ESP, PT Lowered

Saying the major differeniator for solar share prices in 2011 will be vertical integration, Barclays sees that as a negative for JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO), and lowered their price target and EPS estimates on the company.

Barclays says, "...Following recent checks, we are lowering our below consensus 2011 estimates. Vertical integration would be the key differentiator of stock price performance in 2011 - Suntech (NYSE:STP) and MEMC (Nasdaq:WFR) should benefit the most from vertical integration, in our view.

"We are lowering our 2011 estimates from $1.20 to $0.95. Our new estimates are based on cell ASPs of $1.20 in Q1, $1.00/W in Q4, module ASPs declining from $1.65/W in Q1 to $1.45/W in Q4. The company has not provided 2011 shipments guidance yet, but has suggested that Q1 shipments could reach 500MW. We model 465MW cell shipments in Q1 and -1.93GW in 2011 (vs. 1.45GW in 2010)."

Barclays reiterates an "Equalweight" rating on JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (JASO), which closed Tuesday at $7.77, gaining $0.60, or 8.37 percent. Barclays lowered their price target on JASO from $8 to $6.

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