Thursday, March 10, 2011

Bank of America (BAC) Makes Bear Case

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)'s Michael Hartnett came out with a note today given his reasons as to why a market correction is probable.

There are a wide variety of reasons there will most likely be a correction, and here are 10 offered by Hartnett:

1.CPI: headline will be 3-4% in Q2
2.PPI: headline will be 6-7% in Q2
3.ECB hikes in April; Portuguese bond yields at new highs; Euro banks breaking
4.QE2 ends in June; Fed likely to test market reaction
5.ISM peaking…EPS momentum peaking
6.GDP estimates heading lower – this key reason
7.FMS cash levels low, equity allocations high
8.CCMP: tech leadership fading (it’s not a party without the chips)
9.Oil: big rotation from cyclicals to defensives; compare sector performance between a. Jackson Hole and Libya and b. since oil>$95/b –
10.UST, US$: inability of bonds to rally was key reason for Feb equity resilience; bonds now rallying & US dollar finally catching a bid (and metals down)

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