The infatuation with Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) could ultimately become a serious loss for shareholders, as there are a lot of weaknesses surrounding the company which don't justify some of the ridiculous positive outlooks on the company.
Seeking Alpha rightly notes:
"At first glance, Sirius appears to be a financially sound company, with solid margins and a decent cash position. Fiscal 2010 results were stellar, complete with increasing subscribers and strong revenue.
"But what I'd like all you Sirius-heads to do is consider what happens when the subscribers begin to fall? SIRI can only experience so much grow from the increased amount of subscribers without raising the cost of their product at some point in future. With free radio, Pandora and other stations available for almost nothing, SIRI will eventually be backed into a corner. For starters, SIRI gets hit with $60 charge every time a new subscriber signs up. This may be a minimal expense but it's still something that each investor should keep in the back of their mind. However, my main concern is their debt. The screen below displays current outstanding issues of SIRI. They total $3.183 billion. Now, granted only a marginal amount of this debt will come to fruit in 2011, but the future issues are likely to be more of a burden, especially when subscribers peak and SIRI begins to lose money.
"With car sales still crawling up from extremely low levels, and SIRI only adding a net of about 200k in subscribers, there is little room for error by management. If margins or profitability begin to look bleak, you can bet this run up will end very quickly. At $13 a month ($156 a year) plus other costs, this product isn’t the cheapest on the market and there are clearly other substitutes. With gas prices moving north, that’s almost 3 full tanks of gas for some people. I'd easily sacrifice my pricey radio for three full tanks of gas, wouldn’t you? I can live with Z100 or 92. 3NOW on my radio during my commute to work. Additionally, ESPNRADIO, Bloomberg News, and WFAN660 are still available for free!"
Sirius closed Tuesday at $1.75, down $0.06, or 3.31 percent.
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Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Quit Drinking Sirius (SIRI) Kool Aid Says SA
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34 comments:
You must be a friend of the WIld hog. He failed to mention any of the good things. As did you. I will probably be the only one posting here. See you at $5!
Good luck with everything, shortie!
you clearly need to go back to school buddy. a little upset that you're missing the 1000%+ gains since feb 2009 haha.
What are you smoking, and where can I get $20 worth of it?
"that’s almost 3 full tanks of gas for some people. I'd easily sacrifice my pricey radio for three full tanks of gas, wouldn’t you?" this statement is a joke. 3 WHOLE TANKS OF GAS!!! I think i fill up my tank 40-50 times a year, so relatively the 3 tanks of gas is a small price to pay to have high definition radio in your car whenever you're burning that very expensive gas.
how many of your buddy or client on the short list, just keep digging your hole with dumb comment that every share holder know.
Thanks for the pep talk little buddy. Agree that this is a higher spec stock, but obviously you have no clue about who utilizes SiriusXM services. They don't install Sirius or XM radios in Ford Pinto's or the light blue 1981 Rambler you drive. I have one in my BMW, another in my 28' speed boat, and still another mobile unit in my 6 bedroom home. Probably pay more monthly for this kick butt service than you pay in your gas. And, I love it. Sorry you missed the ride.
This guy needs to go back to school. What is Sirius' primary source of subscriptions? Vehicles. What are in most new vehicles? Satellite Radio. What happens everytime one of those vehicles is sold? Subscription money. What does that mean? A constant replenishment of new subscriptions, especially as the car sale business recovers from low levels. Low levels that Sirius already was thriving in. Wow. Way to not even use any analysis or reasoning skills before you posted this commentary.
Another crap article form this blogger. It's a blog, so we know it's got no substance. Blog about everything you want, just not SIRI. I hate seeing these pop up on Google News, but I know to take anything on Google News with grain of salt unless it's a true source.
LOL, that article he quotes has all positive news in it, increased car sales, increased subscribers. Why would they lose subscribers? The worst news lately was actually a blessing in disguise, the losses they had was because they used profits to pay off debt. Sooooo....this article sux.
Thanks for the short squeeze, up 4 cents since article.
11 critical comments in less then an hour clearly showcase how full of ___ this article is. Thanks for a word of encouragement and assurance guys.
Your an idiot. Why do I get links to this bullshit?
Oh boy! The Sirius "Kool Aid" is already about 2% sweeter today already! "Kool Aid" rocks! More sugar please LOL!
Interesting how right after very good car sales numbers are released,,,, siri is such a bad stock to own lol
Thanks shorts good luck with that !
Talk about a guy that goes against the pack...
http://piqqem.com/wisdom/top-rated
That's the majority sentiment of Siri stock going into the future. Maybe you're just trying to keep negative sentiment because you're a Siri long...that would be my guess. As long as there is still negativity, there is room for the stock to go higher.
Is that debt callable? Huge appetitie for covenant-lite high yield bonds...
Siri doesn't compete against Pandora as much as other talk show radio stations...it's particularly strong in sports with Finebaum and Dino Costa. #1 in college sports coverage...the 'FAN in NYC is going down the tubes...it's just not compelling anymore...
The problem I have with Siri is too much advertising on the talk shows. Who gets that advertising revenue? If I'm a national advertiser, I'd much rather go with Siri
This person is an idiot.... I been buying since .12. I have 112,000 shares now. Who laughing now? :)
It's true the company does have to much debt and they need figure out a better model for cell phones. I just picked up a droid x, that I hook up to my car. I tried pandora and sirius xm and the quality of pandora was 10 times better. It's amazing how I can create my own stations. Yes, sirius has amazing potential but in the long run the model the company has will not work. Everyone one day will have a smartphone and will I pay $156 a year or will I pay $36 for pandora? Whatever happened to sirius tv?
You are clearly mentally challenged and should seek help ASAP.
Shorty, Your an idiot, unbelievable!!!!
Another reason this article is riiculous.....http://satelliteradioplayground.com/2011/03/02/sirius-xm-radio-nasdaqsiri-to-benefit-from-stronger-than-expected-february-auto-sales/
I think Sirius XM is riding a fine line at their current price point. If they raise the cost even $1, I will be selling the remainder of my stock as well.
Personally, I think they are right at the tipping point. How do I know? I LOVE THE SERVICE and now even I am questioning the yearly cost.
http://satelicious.com
If $156 dollars is a problem you shouldn't have Sirius in the first place. Most people waste more than this a year on uncancelled subscriptions.
The cost arguement is weak. Most peole arn't so poor as the cost of Sirius is a significant factor.
Plus the free stuff has plenty of disadvantages from commercials to limited content.
Cable goes up all the time, and people refuse ot jump to cheaper services. How about that argument?
I am a Siri believer but also open minded however this opinion was a complete waste of my time.
Complete waste of time. Thanks to you "idiot blogger" I just lost 20 minutes of my life that I will not get back, by reading your ridiculous blog. Glad to see almost noone agrees with your asinine analysis. Time for you to go away and never return.
I bought in at .13, what kind of losses do you see for me? Sorry if you missed the train and are begging for a pullback.
JUST ANOTHER MAD SHORT SELLER THAT LOST A LOT OF MONEY ON THIS STOCK
I smell a short sell binge coming on.
What about the value of "EXCLUSIVE" programming?
I pay for Sirius/XM for the past 7 years for Opie & Anthony, Sean Hannity, MLB, etc.
These exclusives (Howard Stern, Oprah, etc) are simply NOT available through the free radio stations.
Finebaum is blowing up...he's got the #1 Auburn/Alabama talk show on radio...
Do you guys think SIRI is a $20 stock? I bought in at $1.50, love the product and am hoping to ride the wave!
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