Thursday, April 7, 2011

Jitters Over (TGT) (BJ) (COST) (KSS) (JCP) (SKS) (JWN) (M) (SSI) March Sales Report

With Macy's (NYSE:M), Target (NYSE:TGT), BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE:BJ), Costco (Nasdaq:COST), Kohl's (NYSE:KSS), Stage Stores (NYSE:SSI), J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP), Saks (NYSE:SKS) and Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) all reporting March sales today, shareholders and investors have jitters over the narrative that will probably emerge; one that most won't like for some of these companies.

On the positive side, Costco and BJ's Wholesale Club should generate improvements in same-store sales, based on getting more benefits from higher gas prices. Macy's and Nordstrom may also turn in a good quarter.

Barclays said, "Ahead of these results, we are raising our Barclays Capital Broadlines/Dept. Stores Same Store-Sales Index estimate for March to (0.8)% from (2.1)% compared with an 11.3% increase last year. The increase in our index is attributable to our expectations for higher comps for Costco and BJ's Wholesale Club, due to a larger benefit from gas prices, as well as our expectations for continued solid momentum at Macy's and Nordstrom, despite the Easter shift. We are raising our estimate for Costco to 6%-8% from 3%-5%, our estimate for BJ's to 0%-2% from (1)%-1%, our estimate for Macy's to (1)%-(3)% from (2)%-(4)%, and our estimate for Nordstrom to 1%-3% from (2)%-(4)%."

Concerning April, the optimism fades though. "We believe overall sales were solid in March; however, we expect the shift of Easter into April out of March, as well as tough comparisons last year, to have a negative impact on this month's results...We are maintaining our estimate for an 11.8% increase in our index in April," Barclays concluded.

It seems the reports will be a mixed bag, as Bed Bath & Beyond may have stolen some business from Target, and there could be some other surprises in there.

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