Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Solar Industry (FSLR)(STP)(YGE)(TSL)(JASO) At Crossroads

There is no doubt we're rapidly approaching a day or reckoning for the solar industry, where solar companies like Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL), GT Solar International (NASDAQ:SOLR), JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO), LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK), Renesola (NYSE:SOL), SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWRA), Jinko Solar (NYSE:JKS) and Power-One Inc (NASDAQ:PWER), among others, will be battling it out for survival.

Several things guarantee this, including the inability of government to continue to afford to subsidize the dubious industry, which only exists because of government elites and the wealthy, and not because of general consumer demand.

Even with the enormous amount of capital subsidizing the industry, it still remains extremely expensive after a number of years of attempting to lower the costs.

With the low market demand for solar, companies are still fighting to gain share in the sector and are set to boost production capacity at the time subsidies are being trimmed.

That means a large number of solar panels will hit the market, which will mean pressure on margins and earnings for the majority of solar companies around the world.

There can be no doubt this will end up with some solar companies not able to compete or survive.

That's good, as the industry needs to be completely untethered from governments in order to see if they can survive, and if there in fact is legitimate demand for solar.

Until that happens (which is coming), we won't know the real health of the sector because of government interference which is propping up an industry without knowing if it is in fact viable or not.

Either way, solar companies are going to come under increasing pressure as the European market dries up from the out-of-control debt which is threatening to bring down the European Union and the euro.

Solar is quickly losing its priority status and being dropped quickly from the things that are deemed necessary by governments, which are essentially bankrupt.

That will result in solar companies competing in more of a market atmosphere than they have in the past, which is probably not good for most companies that almost completely relied on taxpayers to survive.

23 comments:

Unknown said...

You write a piece of crap like this and post it as though you have the first clue what you are talking about. What a complete MUPPET! Why don't you actually do some research before you write such garbage and maybe even read the news a bit first. On second thoughts, scrap that, you should just buy shares in nuclear plant installers and we'll see how you get on!

Anonymous said...

thanks for the laugh!!! whats the matter trying to short all of these stocks? next time you want someone to read your very ignorant articles make sure to at least do 5 minutes of research.

if you have not noticed the whole world is screaming for more solar power lately and oh by the way not cutting subsidies but adding more...

Anonymous said...

The message of this article acts like government subsidized industries and technologies have no chance of survival without government assistance. Hmm, the internet, utilities, transportation, medicines, etc... were all carried by governments at one time, but now integrally embraced by consumers as a facet of private industry. I think the author of this article has a personal, emotional, or irrational relationship with the solar industry. Most of their comments are fallacious and conjecture, at best.

Anonymous said...

Martin is right, maybe someone educates the writer, many like him who are just misinformed by people offloading nucelar and utilities. In fact, many subsidies and plans for solar are upped in Europe, China and Japan in urgent need of a fix. Infrastructure for solar getting better every day.
Still there are solar shorts out there - lets just see if they fare better this year and will not get squeezed again.

Anonymous said...

"Several things guarantee this, including the inability of government to continue to afford to subsidize the dubious industry, which only exists because of government elites and the wealthy, and not because of general consumer demand."

You are a nitwit.

Can you show how nuclear energy could survive without HUGE government subsidies from mining uranium, processing uranium, and disposing of spent fuel rods.

What about the coal, NG, and oil subsidies that the US has been giving out?

Can you also address the indirect costs of using coal, nuclear and oil based forms of energy? I am asking for health and environmental costs.

Anonymous said...

WOW another terrible article by our friend ellen... how are you still employed??

comment above me made some very solid points about the government subsidies that go into nuclear, coal and natural gas.

read a newspaper will ya... do you have any idea what has been going on lately in europe? now the middle east?? the rest of the world is looking to expand their solar energy and by far!!!

Anonymous said...

OMG god the shortsellers with their lies and deceit hoping the longs will sell there shares.

Anonymous said...

sounds like someone did not cover... lol.. for every 50 positive articles out there there will be one just like this great article.. Mrs. ellen you are shorting the wrong sector.. i hear nuclear is not doing so well these days, take the losses and move on. Please have some integrity before posting deceitful articles.

Fredo said...

All power production relies upon government subsidies. PV solar, however, is the only source that can provide the distributed means of production that already overwhelmed central power producers require to moderate demand spikes during peak usage periods. PV solar is the only source that can be initiated on a small or large scale basis by the very user of said power. Spain, in particular, has a stated goal of putting a solar panel on every roof top. That sounds like growth to me, and what's better is that it sounds like lightly subsidized growth of clean energy. Solar panels need not be stored at Yucca mountain when they're depleted. We're all in favor of smaller government subsidies for all things, but let's not pretend that Nuclear, Coal, Oil and Ethanol aren't heavily subsidized.

you are a joke said...

cant write too much as i do not want to waste any more time reading this bs manipulating article...

low market demand for solar???
until that happens (which is coming)???

i would love to see your sources or perhaps your obvious shorting interest on these stocks. seems like you wrote a winner here.. however please note that the only thing you won was the most desperate article of the day.. good luck trying to short one of the fastest growing industries out there sweetheart

Anonymous said...

Grid parity has already happened in a couple markets. Soon solar companies will have more money than God.

That is all.

Anonymous said...

"Solar is quickly losing its priority status and being dropped quickly from the things that are deemed necessary by governments, which are essentially bankrupt." What planet do you live on? Hey shortie thanks for the pullback...I added more to my position...P.S next time come with facts

Anonymous said...

This is the worst and garbage article. I do not want to spend time to comment it.

Anonymous said...

Just scumbags writing lies, Why don't you real research about the industry...

FearTheVIX said...

I think your a bit off on this one. Solar companies are just heating up, Germany and Italy along with most of Europe remain fully committed to meeting their 2050 Solar goals. If you're short, you're going to get burned. Becareful.

Anonymous said...

I admire your imagination...you should try writing fiction novels

Anonymous said...

I advise anyone looking to invest in solar to do what this writer did not do...homework

Unknown said...

For Ellen:

In 2008, total worldwide energy consumption was 474 exajoules (474×1018 J=132,000 TWh). This is equivalent to an average annual power consumption rate of 15 terawatts (1.504×1013 W).
The potential for renewable energy is: solar energy 1600 EJ (444,000 TWh), wind power 600 EJ (167,000 TWh), geothermal energy 500 EJ (139,000 TWh), biomass 250 EJ (70,000 TWh), hydropower 50 EJ (14,000 TWh) and ocean energy 1 EJ (280 TWh).

Now go back to your heavy tax subsidized oil lobbyist and tell'em u actually learned something today. And during your trip u may want to contemplate about Wh prizes increasing faster then u can educate yourself.
My take-home message: if dummies like u can have a job as a columnist I am not worried about the coming double dip recession part II

Anonymous said...

You are ignorant and intellectualy myopic, don't speculate by shorting solar because it will hurt, it will be painful, long and expensive for you

Anonymous said...

This article is a lie. DO not believe it.

Anonymous said...

well the post above mine summed it all up... How do you get away with publishing so many lies? Make sure to never read any more of ur articles... By the way thanks for the money you WILL lose by shorting the solarstocks... What a moron

Unknown said...

This article's spurious behind-the-curve arguments are what happens when someone who can't think very well puts their thoughts in writing. Messy; the weak inference that unsubstantiated opinions equate to defensible logic. File under Big Oil flunky.

Amika said...

I have to admit, the author was right for a few days at least. Great buying opportunites for the rest of us though, TYVM