Monday, May 16, 2011

JA Solar (JASO) Down on Industry Weakness

JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO), while primarily dealing in the domestic market of China, has been getting hit hard recently as funding in the industry around the U.S. and the world is starting to fizzle as governments look closely at the industry and question the value of the sector as a viable energy source.

Uncertainty surrounding Italy cutting back on its financial commitment to the solar industry while deciding to focus on rooftop solar has hurt some companies in the sector and possibly could help others. But it shows the reason there is so much volatility in the industry, as it is increasingly being questioned by governments as to the viability of solar and other non-convential energy sources being worth the cost and effort, as they are unreliable, expensive and won't help much over the long term.

Germany also announced on Friday they're probably going to revisit their commitment to the size of its feed-in-tariff, which is likely to be lowered, based on the comment itself.

Bill Gates also recently said solar and other so-called alternative energy sources have no real chance of dealing with our energy challenges, and rightly called solar and wind energy a "cute" idea but being no solution to our energy needs.

The truth is if an industry can't survive without the government, it's not a real market, but an artificial construct that needs to be abandoned as far as taxpayer subsidies and allowed to compete on its own in the marketplace. That includes all energy sectors.

JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. participates in the development, production, and marketing of photovoltaic solar cells in China.

JA Solar (JASO) closed Friday at $6.16, dropping $0.21, or 3.30 percent.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your negative comments are absurd as solar is booming.
The 3rd largest oil French oil co. is buying 60% of SPWR and G.E. is going in huge.

I don't know why I am getting a news alert from you and this source.
Your comments are poor.

Anonymous said...

how does this worthless piece of garbage blog keep getting on google news?

curt0 said...

Revenue growth from 2009 to 2010:

JA Solar (JASO): 211%
Netflix: 30%
Salesforce.com: 21%
Apple: 52%
Amazon: 40%

Revenue growth from 2007 to 2010 (approx.):

JASO: 337%
Netflix: 79%
Salesforce: 121% (Fiscal YE is on end of Jan)
Apple: 165%
Amazon: 131%

Net Income growth from 2007 to 2010 (approx.):

JASO: 338%
Netflix: 141%
Salesforce: 251%
Apple: 301%
Amazon: 142%

Share price change from end of 2007 to end of 2010 (approx.):

JASO: -70% (that’s right, minus/negative seventy percent)
Netflix: 560%
Salesforce: 111%
Apple: 63%
Amazon: 94%

JASO expects 2011 shipments to be 50% higher with 90% of 2011's shipments under contract. How many other companies can say this? Wall Street still spreads FUD and downgrades JASO.

Imagine this:

A company’s revenue is dropping by 50% per year, losing money and gives you guidance that their revenue and losses will get worse in the next year and this is guaranteed because 90% of their customers have already committed by law that they won’t buy anymore. Then a Wall Street firm gives the company a “strong buy”.

This is the kind of rating that Wall Street gives.

Is Wall Street manipulating solar stocks? Read this:

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/872074-curt0/143971-is-wall-street-manipulating-solar-stocks

curt0 said...

Allen wrote:

"...if an industry can't survive without the government, it's not a real market, but an artificial construct that needs to be abandoned as far as taxpayer subsidies..."

According to http://www.truth-out.org/renewable-future/1305474409
"...fossil-fuel subsidies, which, with barely a murmur of protest, are currently running at more than $600 billion a year."

Allen quoted Bill Gates. When did Bill Gates become an energy expert, especially an alternative energy export? Gates cannot even make a product that doesn't crash every week. Both my spouse and I have to reboot Windows multiple times per week. I finally switched to Mac and I am so glad that I'm liberated from Windows, that P.O.S.

More stats:

JA Solar: < 4
Priceline.com: 45
Netflix: 69
Salesforce.com: 281
Apple: 16
Amazon: 85

Solar bashers continue to nitpick the trees to confuse you, but they never show you the forests such as the above numbers. They keep spreading FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) about European subsidies, but they never or rarely talk about China’s plans to double solar usage by 2015 and increase it by 400% by 2020: http://etfdailynews.com/2011/05/18/china-solar-power-sunny-days-ahead-for-solar-etfs/

JA Solar (JASO) gave explosive, crystal-clear guidance for 2011 that is backed by law (50% growth in 2011 with 90% of the 2011’s sales already under contract). How many companies can say that? Name just one.

Can Wall Street Analysts show one non-solar company with numbers similar to JASO’s? I’ve challenged Herb Greenberg of CNBC and Eric Rosenbaum of TheStreet to this, but no reply. Nobody can name one company.

Why do these people continue to be wrong and continue to bash?

One plausible explanation for this, is manipulation for short term gains. Insider trading is rife on Wall Street. Don’t think manipulation is not.

However, as Ben Graham (Warren Buffet’s mentor) has written, the share price always eventually reflects the fundamentals. That's how Graham and Buffet became the most successful investors in the world.