UPS (UPS) (EV) (FDX) (EDMC) (ODFL) Get Upgrades, Downgrades

UPS (NYSE:UPS), Education Management (NASDAQ:EDMC), Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV), FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and Old Dominion Freight (NASDAQ:ODFL) received uprades or downgrades from analysts.

Education Management (EDMC) was upgraded by Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) from an "Underweight" rating to an "Equal-weight" rating. They cited valuation as the catalyst behind the call. They have a price target of $16 on the company

Eaton Vance (EV) was downgraded by Ticonderoga from a "Neutral" rating to a "Sell" rating. They have a price target of $20 on the company.

FedEx (FDX) was downgraded by Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) from an "Outperform" rating to a "Neutral" rating.

Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) upgraded by Credit Suisse to an "Outperform" rating. They cited valuation as the catalyst behind the call.

UPS (UPS) upgraded by Credit Suisse from a "Neutral" rating to an "Outperform" rating.

Meritor (MTOR) (ED) (TEN) (EMC) (EV) (GENT) Price Targets Changed

Meritor (NASDAQ: MTOR), Consolidated Edison, Inc. (NYSE: ED), Tenneco Inc. (NYSE: TEN), EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC), Eaton Vance Corp. (NYSE: EV) and Gentium SpA (NASDAQ: GENT) price targets adjusted by analysts.

Meritor (MTOR) had its price target lowered by Barclays Capital from $20.00 to $15.00. They have an “Overweight” rating on the company.

Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED) had its price target raised by Jefferies (NYSE:JEF) to $54.50. They have a “Hold” rating on the company. They cited valuation as the catalyst behind the call.

Tenneco Inc. (TEN) had its price target lowered by Barclays Capital from $57.00 to $54.00. They have an “Overweight” rating on the company.

EMC Corp. (EMC) had its price target lowered by Barclays Capital from $37.00 to $32.00. They have an “Overweight” rating on the company.

Eaton Vance Corp. (EV) had its price target lowered by Citigroup (NYSE:C) to $23.00. They have a “Hold” rating on the company.

Gentium SpA (GENT) had its price target lowered by Wedbush from $16.00 to $14.00. They have an “Outperform” rating on the company.

Toro (TTC) (UAL) (ACI) (EV) (ROK) (VOD) Upgraded

Toro (NYSE: TTC), United Continental (NYSE: UAL), Arch Coal, Inc. (NYSE: ACI), Eaton Vance Corp. (NYSE: EV), Rockwell Automation Inc. (NYSE: ROK) and Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) were upgraded by analysts.

Toro (TTC) was upgraded by analysts at Raymond James (NYSE:RJF) from a “Market Perform” rating to an “Outperform” rating.

United Continental (UAL) was upgraded by Dahlman Rose from a “Hold” rating to a “Buy” rating. They have a price target $24.00 on the company.

Arch Coal, Inc. (ACI) was upgraded by Credit Agricole from an “Outperform” rating to a “Buy” rating.

Eaton Vance Corp. (EV) was upgraded by Citigroup (NYSE:C) from a “Sell” rating to a “Hold” rating.

Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK) was upgraded by Robert W. Baird from a “Neutral” rating to an “Outperform” rating. They have a price target of $90.00 on the company, down from $92.00.

Vodafone (VOD) was upgraded by UBS AG (NYSE:UBS) from a “Neutral” rating to a “Buy” rating. They have a price target of $31.05 on the company.

Price Targets on (ANF) (SODA) (SYK) (EV) Updated

Price targets on shares of Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Sodastream International (NASDAQ: SODA), Stryker (NYSE: SYK) and Eaton Vance Corp. (NYSE: EV) were updated by analysts.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) raised their price target on Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) to $85.00.

Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) raised their price target on Sodastream International (SODA) to $50.00.

Piper Jaffray (NYSE:PJC) raised their price target on Stryker (SYK) to $72.00.

Citigroup (NYSE:C) cut their price target on Eaton Vance Corp. (EV) to $29.00. They have a “sell” rating on the company.

Ex-Dividend for (NEBS) (NTG) (NYH) (PTR) (STO) is May 20

The ex-dividend date for New England Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ:NEBS), Tortoise MLP Fund (NYSE:NTG), Eaton Vance New York Municipal Bond Fund II (NYSE:NYH), PetroChina Company Ltd. (NYSE:PTR) and Statoil ASA (NYSE:STO) is May 20.

New England Bancshares Inc. (NEBS) pays a dividend of $0.03 with a yield of 1.26 percent.

Tortoise MLP Fund (NTG) pays a dividend of $0.41 with a yield of 6.20 percent.

Eaton Vance New York Municipal Bond Fund II (NYH) pays a dividend of $0.07 with a yield of 6.96 percent.

PetroChina Company Ltd. (PTR) pays a dividend of $2.49 with a yield of 3.39 percent.

Statoil ASA (NYSE:STO) pays a dividend of $0.94 with a yield of 3.61 percent.

Ex-Dividend for (HQL) (MAB) (MIW) (MT) (MXIM) is May 20

The ex-dividend date for H&Q Life Sciences Investors (NYSE:HQL), Eaton Vance Massachusetts Municipal Bond Fund (NYSE:MAB), Eaton Vance Michigan Municipal Bond Fund (NYSE:MIW), ArcelorMittal SA (NYSE:MT) and Maxim Integrated Products (NASDAQ:MXIM) is May 20.

H&Q Life Sciences Investors (HQL) pays a dividend of $0.26 with a yield of 8.02 percent.

Eaton Vance Massachusetts Municipal Bond Fund (MAB) pays a dividend of $0.07 with a yield of 6.46 percent.

Eaton Vance Michigan Municipal Bond Fund (MIW) pays a dividend of $0.07 with a yield of 6.45 percent.

ArcelorMittal SA (MT) pays a dividend of $0.16 with a yield of 1.85 percent.

Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) pays a dividend of $0.21 with a yield of 3.01 percent.

Ex-Dividend for (EOT) (EVM) (GGB) (HLF) (HQH) is May 20

The ex-dividend date for Eaton Vance National Municipal Opportunities (NYSE:EOT), Eaton Vance California Municipal Bond Fund (NYSE:EVM), Gerdau SA (NYSE:GGB), Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) and H&Q Healthcare Investors (NYSE:HQH) is May 20.

Eaton Vance National Municipal Opportunities (EOT) pays a dividend of $0.10 with a yield of 6.61 percent.

Eaton Vance California Municipal Bond Fund (EVM) pays a dividend of $0.07 with a yield of 7.76 percent.

Gerdau SA (GGB) pays a dividend of $0.04 with a yield of 1.45 percent.

Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) pays a dividend of $0.20 with a yield of 0.88 percent.

H&Q Healthcare Investors (NYSE:HQH) pays a dividend of $0.32 with a yield of 8.17 percent.

Ex-Dividend for (EIO) (EIP) (EIV) (EMJ) (ENX) is May 20

The ex-dividend date for Eaton Vance Ohio Municipal Bond Fund (NYSE:EIO), Eaton Vance Pennsylvania Municipal Bond Fund (NYSE:EIP), Eaton Vance Municipal Bond Fund II (NYSE:EIV), Eaton Vance New Jersey Municipal Bond Fund (NYSE:EMJ) and Eaton Vance New York Municipal Bond Fund (NYSE:ENX) is May 20.

Eaton Vance Ohio Municipal Bond Fund (EIO) pays a dividend of $0.06 with a yield of 6.67 percent.

Eaton Vance Pennsylvania Municipal Bond Fund (EIP) pays a dividend of $0.07 with a yield of 6.68 percent.

Eaton Vance Municipal Bond Fund II (EIV) pays a dividend of $0.08 with a yield of 7.41 percent.

Eaton Vance New Jersey Municipal Bond Fund (EMJ) pays a dividend of $0.08 with a yield of 6.80 percent.

Eaton Vance New York Municipal Bond Fund (ENX) pays a dividend of $0.07 with a yield of 6.67 percent.

Ratings on (CISG) (ETR) (EV) (FNB) (HIBB) Reiterated

Ratings on CNinsure Inc. (NASDAQ: CISG), Entergy Corp. (NYSE: ETR), Eaton Vance Corp. (NYSE: EV), F.N.B. Corp (NYSE: FNB) and Hibbett Sports, Inc. (NASDAQ: HIBB) were reiterated by analysts.

Piper Jaffray (NYSE:PJC) reiterated an “underweight” rating on CNinsure Inc. (CISG). They have a price target of $10.00 on the company.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reiterated a “neutral” rating on Entergy Corp. (ETR).

Sterne Agee reiterated a “buy” rating on Eaton Vance Corp. (EV). They have a price target of $39.00 on the company.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc reiterated an “outperform” rating on F.N.B. Corp (NYSE: FNB). They have a price target of $12.50 on the company.

Sterne Agee reiterated a “buy” rating on Hibbett Sports, Inc. (HIBB).

Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV) Equity Products Remain Under Pressure

With the bond market under extreme pressure and equities of Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV) underperforming, Ticonderoga sees the company as overvalued at current levels.

Ticonderoga said, "EV Equity Franchise Has Its Work Cut Out. EV's largest equity products continue to face performance challenges. For the one-year period, the Large Cap Value fund and the Tax-Managed Growth fund were in the 91st and 75th percentile, respectively. Combined, the funds represent an estimated 42% of equity mutual fund assets (Large Cap Value alone accounted for 11% of total revenue in F2010, while the Tax Managed Growth portfolio was likely a touch below 10% for the year). We continue to see a steady rate of asset decay but nothing overly alarming yet. However, we are growing a bit more concerned considering the length of the relative gap. We estimate that EV's total equity fund assets on a weighted basis were in the 82nd and 65th percentile over the one- and three-year periods, respectively.

"More Risk in Name at Current Levels. While we are not calling for a doomsday bond scenario, general pressure on US bonds poses some pressure to the EV flow story. Combined with greater risk to the equity franchise, we continue to believe shares are overvalued."

Ticonderoga maintains a "Sell" rating on on Eaton Vance, which closed Tuesday at $30.17, down $0.70, or 2.27 percent. They have a price target of $25 on Eaton.

Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN) Need to Rotate to Equities

Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN) has scored big gains in market share, and if they want to retain the share they need to rotate their assets en masse to equities, says Ticonderoga.

Ticonderoga said, "Fixed Income AUM Likely Outperforming Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV) and Legg Mason (NYSE:LM) This Quarter. Through last night, we estimate that BEN's fixed income AUM is up 1.3% for the calendar quarter. We estimate that EV's fixed income AUM is down 4.5% from the beginning of November through yesterday and that LM's fixed income AUM is down 4.7% for the three-month period. Fixed income is a bigger piece of AUM for LM than any other manager (54%), while EV has roughly 30% of AUM in fixed income. BEN is in between at 40%.

"BEN Has Gained Tremendous Market Share, So It Has Better Chance of Retaining Assets If They Rotate en Masse to Equities. BEN's AUM market share among EV, LM, T.Rowe Price (Nasdaq:TROW), and Janus (NYSE:JNS) was 24.5% at 3/09 and 31% at the end of 9/10. Accordingly, BEN is likely in a better position than most to capture internal equity flows via exchanges because it already has the assets.

"BEN Did Quite Well the Last Time Equities “Flowed.” A big misconception, in our view, is that BEN is not levered to equities. At the end of November, 43% of BEN's AUM was in equities. More important, a look back at recent robust periods for equities supports the company's leverage. From 2005 through 2007, industry equity mutual funds totaled $389bn. BEN's equity mutual funds from 12/31/2004 through 12/30/2007 were $63 billion, or an organic growth rate of 31.7%. This compares to TROW's growth of 31.1% and JNS's at negative 24%. We use TROW and JNS because they are generally perceived as the best plays on equities. Note that for TROW, we exclude separate account flows, so it is likely that its total equity growth rate over the period was better than BEN's."

Ticonderoga maintains a "Buy" rating on Franklin Resources, which is trading at $110.92, down $0.98, or 0.88 percent, as of 12:26 PM EST.

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), Schwab (Nasdaq:SCHW), Wisdom Tree (OTC:WSDT), Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV), Invesco (NYSE:IVZ), Janus Capital (NYSE:JNS) Assessed by Ticonderoga

Ticonderoga took a look at several financial sectors and companies, including BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), Schwab (Nasdaq:SCHW), Wisdom Tree (OTC:WSDT), Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV), Invesco (NYSE:IVZ) and Janus Capital (NYSE:JNS), with varying degrees of results.

Ticonderoga Securities said, "ETF Flows Slow, Domestic Equity Improves, U.S. Bonds Have Outflows. ETF flows slowed to $10.5 billion in November from $12.1 billion in October. Domestic equity flows actually increased to $5.9 billion from $3.1 billion last month while Global flows declined to $3.6 billion from $8.3 billion last month. Note this is contrary to open end mutual funds where international remains in inflow mode and domestic mutual funds in outflow mode. This dynamic is alarming for domestically biased mutual fund managers we cover such as LM, Eaton Vance, Invesco and Janus Capital . Also notable were negative U.S. fixed income flows of $571 million. They were positive $1.6 billion in October.

"Slowdown in Passive Bonds Worth Watching for BlackRock. The slowdown in bond ETFS is worth watching. BLK had $32 billion in passive bond flows in Q3. Excluding passive bonds, BLK would have had $12 billion in outflows. We expect to see more active outflows related from quantitative and the merger. A negative turn in bond flows would likely further pressure BLK growth rates in the near term considering recent reliance on passive fixed income.

"Other Notables. The big three (Vanguard, Blackrock, State Street) continue to dominate, but smaller outfits are showing some signs of success. Schwab (NR) reported ETF flows of $205 million compared to $170 million last month. Wisdom Tree (NR) reported inflow of $490 million, fourth best for the month despite being the eighth largest ETF manager with roughly $8.8 billion in AUM."

BlackRock closed Monday at $171.48, down $0.87, or 0.50 percent. Charles Schwab closed up $16.21, gaining $0.08, or 0.50 percent. Wisdom Tree ended the trading session at $3.90, up by $0.25, or 6.85 percent. Eaton Vance was at $30.90, losing $0.29, or 0.93 percent. Invesco closed at $22.82, falling $0.17, or 0.74 percent. Janus was at $11.59, down slightly by $0.01, or 0.09 percent.

Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV) Organic Growth a Disaster

After their latest quarterly report, things couldn't have been much worse for Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV) concerning their organic growth outlook, as they were at this lowest level in a decade.

Ticonderoga, which maintains a "Sell" rating on Eaton, said, "EV reported EPS of $0.41, ahead of our $0.39 estimate. Upside was driven by better other revenue and a slightly lower compensation ratio. AUM of $185.2 billion and net flows of $3.2 billion were already released...Outflows were $762 million, worse than our estimate and the worst organic growth rate this decade. Large cap value underperformance and pressure from ETFs lead us to believe this category will remain challenged."

"Bottom line. Solid headline quarter and solid flows—however, we think the outlook is softening with equity outflows the largest in a decade and a likely slowdown of at least 40-60% in fixed income flows next year. EV is still trading at a 13% premium. We think it should be in line or $25."

Even though Eaton Vance will get the headlines they best estimates, their equity flows are a major challenge going forward.

Eaton closed Tuesday at $29.47, falling $1.13, or 3.69 percent. Ticonderoga has a price target of $25 on them.

Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV) Facing Negative Muni Flows

Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV) will continue to struggle according to Ticonderoga, based largely on their exposure to Municipal bonds, which have turned negative this week.

"ICI flows continue to show strong flows into international equity (+$2.3bn), small outflows out of domestic equity (-$677mm) and stable taxable flows (+$4.1bn). However, municipal flows turned negative this week for the first time since April 14, 2010 (-$115mm). This is only the second week munis have been negative going back to 2/25/2009...Managers With Muni Exposure to Be Pressured by Flow Trends, Recent Sell-Off," said Ticonderoga.

Consequently, they maintain a "Sell" rating on Eaton Vance, which closed Thursday at $29.85, rising by $0.57, or 1.95 percent. They have a price target of $25 on Eaton.