International Coal (ICO) (MEE) (YZC) (LLEN) Poised for Soaring Coal Demand

Exploding coal demand around the world should drive up the share prices of many companies with significant exposure to coal like International Coal Group, Inc. (NYSE:ICO), Massey Energy (NYSE:MEE), Yanzhou coal mining Co. (NYSE:YZC) and L&L Energy (NASDAQ:LLEN).

When it comes to coal don't listen to the snake-oil salesman from the mainstream media who attempt to paint coal as a dying industry, when in fact it's poised for an unprecedented upward move in demand as emerging markets and developing markets clamor for the energy source.

The two obvious candidates for just about everything - China and India - are behind the demand for coal of all types (thermal and coking), but the developing world is also looking to make up for shortfalls.

Most coal companies and companies with exposure to coal will benefit from this long-term trend, especially those in the United States, who are looking to expand beyond its domestic market, where demand is being artificially constrained by the government.

The coal in demand has high energy content (a particular strength in the U.S.) where coal has significant sulfur in it.

Climate change hucksters have been pressuring the radical Obama administration to cut back on coal domestically while just about everywhere else it's in huge demand.

This has even led former Microsoft CEO Bill Gates to say alternative energy sources like solar and wind are a "cute" idea, but will do little if anything to assuage the energy needs of the world.

He's referring to the billions of people in need of electricity and how sources like coal will be used for a long time into the future. He sees nuclear as being the more viable alternative than the anemic results coming from wind, power and geothermal sources.

In the short term demand from Japan will also make a big increase in demand for coal as it seeks alternative energy sources as it rebuilds the nation.

China is expected to import about 70 million tons of coal in 2011 while India will import about 60 million.

Thermal coal, which is used to generate electricity, is expected to surge in demand in 2011 to over 7 billion tons.

Recently Peabody Energy CEO Greg Boyce said investors that over the next decade coal will generate more electricity than "gas, oil, nuclear, hydro, geothermal and solar combined."

For coal companies based in America, their challenge is infrastructure related, where railroads and ports will be pressed to push through enough coal to meed surging demand.

According to Arch Coal President John Eaves, "It's something unprecedented in human history, arguably, 3 billion people going through an industrial revolution at the same time," referring to the possibility of about 11 percent (35 gigawatts) of coal-fired U.S. capacity being shut down over the next decade, while at the same time 249 gigawatts of new coal-fired power plants are being constructed around the world.

He sees close to another 800 million tons of new coal needed to supply the growing needs, in addition to what is already being supplied.

So when you read the next media report about the decline of the coal industry, take it with a grain of salt. The old energy source is becoming the next big thing, and will remain that way for decades.

Some will say that coal is back, but the fact is it never went away.

Well-run coal companies should grow for many years into the future. It is a long-term play, not something that will be volatile and experience huge swings on a day-to-day basis like silver can.

International Coal (ICO) closed Friday at $14.45, down $0.02, or 0.14 percent.

Peabody (BTU) (NRP) (YZC) (ICO) (ANR) Trade Down

Even with thermal coal demand rising, along with coal imports from China, Natural Resource Partners (NYSE:NRP), Yanzhou coal mining Co. (NYSE:YZC), Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU), International Coal Group, Inc. (NYSE:ICO) and Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR) still closed down Thursday with the rest of the coal industry, as the sector took a break.

Coal prices in China have been soaring as domestic producers face higher costs. That has led to Chinese utilities looking outside the country for cheaper prices.

According to China Coal Transport and Distribution Association imports in May will increase as a result of the domestic market conditions in the country.

Inventories at ports continue to be low, which should cause domestic coal prices to continue to push up, increasing the coal imports, which will benefit any coal producer with exposure in China.

Peabody Energy Corporation closed Thursday at $61.75, falling $2.27, or 3.55 percent.

Arch (ACI) (NRP) (YZC) (ICO) Futures Look Solid as Coal will Dominate

Coal demand should provide good returns for coal companies like Arch Coal, Inc. (NYSE:ACI), Natural Resource Partners (NYSE:NRP), Yanzhou coal mining Co. (NYSE:YZC) and International Coal Group, Inc. (NYSE:ICO).

While the stories of the demise of coal have been going on for decades, a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration called the “Annual Energy Outlook,” again asserts coal will decline substantially over the next 25 years, although it seems a lot of things will have to happen almost perfectly for that to be the case.

But if there is a significant dent made in the demand from coal, it'll come from natural gas, not from the expensive and unreliable sources like wind turbines and solar energy. At this time so-called renewable supply about 11 percent of electricy in America.

If the past is any indicator, the projections of coal replacement are far too optimistic, and it is certain it will be a major part of electrical generation for decades.

Coal suppliers should continue to do well for years, as demand continues, but it will probably be at a slower rate than in the past, and the amount of supply of metallurgical coal by a company will determine a lot of the success of each individual firm.

Ratings on (BWP) (HAE) (ICO) (LPSN) (OXY) Downgraded by Analysts

Ratings on Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (NYSE: BWP), Haemonetics Co. (NYSE: HAE), International Coal Group, Inc. (NYSE: ICO), LivePerson Inc (NASDAQ: LPSN) and Occidental Petroleum Co. (NYSE: OXY) were downgraded today by analysts.

Raymond James (NYSE:RJF) downgraded Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (BWP) from a “market perform” rating to an “underperform” rating.

Craig Hallum downgraded Haemonetics Co. (HAE) from a “buy” rating to an “accumulate” rating.

Brean Murray downgraded International Coal Group, Inc. (ICO) from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating.

Craig Hallum downgraded LivePerson Inc (LPSN) from a “buy” rating to an “accumulate” rating.

Societe Generale downgraded Occidental Petroleum Co. (OXY) from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. They have a price target of $108.00 on the company. They cited valuation as the catalyst behind their call.

Massey (MEE) (PCX) (CLD) (ICO) (PVR) Strengthened by Increasing Coal Demand

Soaring demand from China and India for thermal or steam coal, and to a lesser degree, coking or metallurgical coal, is pushing the price of coal up, as well as the share price of those coal companies and companies with coal exposure such as Massey Energy (NYSE:MEE), Patriot Coal (NYSE:PCX), International Coal Group, Inc. (NYSE:ICO), Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE:CLD) and Penn Virginia Resource Partners (NYSE:PVR) who provide the needed energy source.

IN 2011 India should import about 60 million tons of thermal coal, a 17 percent increase over 2010's 47 million tons. China is expected to import about 70 million tons of thermal coal in 2012.

Thermal coal is used to generate electricity while coking coal is used to run steel plants. Overall, thermal coal demand is projected to surpass 7 billion tons in 2011, according to U.S. coal producer Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE:BTU).

Thermal coal will probably grow faster than oil and gas in 2011, soaring over 30 percent to a record as demand from China and India climb and Japan increases its imports to make up for nuclear power lost after the recent earthquake.

Daniel Brebner, an analyst for Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) in London, said in the early part of April that thermal coal will average $132 a ton this year and $145 in 2012. Those prices are similar to what other analysts have also projected for thermal coal prices in that time period.

Head of Rio Tinto Group’s Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. unit, Chris Renwick, said, “We expect strong demand growth in China and India will continue throughout 2011 and the long-term prospects are also bright. Our traditional Asian markets have returned to pre-global financial crisis demand levels.”

Massey Energy closed Friday at $68.242, climbing $1.90, or 2.86 percent.

Posco (PKX) (AHGP) (ICO) (CLD) Close Mixed as Thermal Coal Demand Soars

Alliance Holdings GP, (NASDAQ:AHGP), International Coal Group, Inc. (NYSE:ICO), Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE:CLD) and Posco (NYSE:PKX) close mixed as surging demand from China and India for thermal or steam coal, and to a lesser extent, coking or metallurgical coal, is pushing the price of coal up, as well as the share price of those coal companies and companies with coal exposure like ... who provide the needed energy source.

IN 2011 India should import about 60 million tons of thermal coal, a 17 percent increase over 2010's 47 million tons. China is expected to import about 70 million tons of thermal coal in 2012.

Thermal coal is used to generate electricity while coking coal is used to run steel plants.

Overall, thermal coal demand is projected to surpass 7 billion tons in 2011, according to U.S. coal producer Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE:BTU).

Thermal coal will probably grow faster than oil and gas in 2011, soaring over 30 percent to a record, as demand from China and India climbs and Japan increases its imports to make up for nuclear power lost after the recent earthquake.

Daniel Brebner, an analyst for Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) in London, said in the early part of April that thermal coal will average $132 a ton this year and $145 in 2012. Those prices are similar to what other analysts have also projected for thermal coal prices in that time period.

Head of Rio Tinto Group’s Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. unit, Chris Renwick, said, “We expect strong demand growth in China and India will continue throughout 2011 and the long-term prospects are also bright. Our traditional Asian markets have returned to pre-global financial crisis demand levels.”

Posco (PKX) (ICO) (BTU) (CLD) Close Mixed as Thermal Coal Demand Explodes

Growing demand from China and India for thermal or steam coal, and to a lesser degree, coking or metallurgical coal, is driving the price of coal up, as well as the share price those coal companies and companies with coal exposure like International Coal Group, Inc. (NYSE:ICO), Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU), Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE:CLD) and Posco (NYSE:PKX), all of which provide the needed energy source.

IN 2011 India is expected to import about 60 million tons of thermal coal, a 17 percent increase over 2010's 47 million tons. China is estimated to be looking at importing about 70 million tons of thermal coal in 2012.

Thermal coal is used to generate electricity while coking coal to run steel plants.

Overall, thermal coal demand is estimated to surpass 7 billion tons in 2011, according to U.S. coal producer Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE:BTU).

Thermal coal will probably grow faster than oil and gas in 2011, increasing over 30 percent to a record, as demand from China and India soars and Japan adds to its imports to make up for nuclear power lost after the recent earthquake.

Daniel Brebner, an analyst for Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) in London, said in the early part of April, that thermal coal will average $132 a ton this year and $145 in 2012. Those prices are close to what other analysts have also projected for thermal coal prices going forward.

Head of Rio Tinto Group’s (NYSE:RIO) Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (CNA) unit, Chris Renwick, said, “We expect strong demand growth in China and India will continue throughout 2011 and the long-term prospects are also bright. Our traditional Asian markets have returned to pre-global financial crisis demand levels.”

Posco (NYSE:PKX) closed Thursday at $111.13, falling $2.10, or 1.85 percent. Cloud Peak Energy Inc. ended the day at $19.94, up $0.28, or 1.42 percent. Peabody Energy Corporation closed at $66.02, jumping $1.12, or 1.73 percent. International Coal Group, Inc. closed the session at $10.87, rising $0.19, or 1.78 percent.

Arch Coal (ACI) (ANR) (ICO) (YZC) Close Up on Strong Demand, Higher Prices

While there have been some setbacks this year for some coal miners because of the floods in Australia, the overall industry looks robust, and demand is strong in China and India as coal firms like Arch Coal, Inc. (NYSE:ACI), Yanzhou coal mining Co. (NYSE:YZC) and International Coal Group, Inc. (NYSE:ICO) and Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR) closed up Wednesday on the long term trend.

Some thought the quarterly earnings report of Peabody Energy Corp. was going to drag down the coal sector, but guidance long term was strong, even in the midst of some of the short-term challenges.

Demand will remain strong for coal while supply is constrained. That's a good situation for any company providing a product, and it will be for the coal sector and the miners in it as well.

Record prices for steel-making metallurgical coal along with power-generating thermal coal in recent weeks has also given a boost to the industry.

Coal's importance will remand for decades and longer, and those supplying it should enjoy some solid growth and earnings during that time.

Alpha Natural Resources closed at $56.22, gaining $1.62, or 2.97 percent. International Coal Group, Inc. ended the session at $10.68, up $0.17, or 1.62 percent. Yanzhou coal mining Co. closed at $37.70, rising $1.23, or 3.37 percent. Arch Coal, Inc. closed the day at $33.43, jumping $0.32, or 0.97 percent.

Massey (MEE) (BTU) (ICO) (YZC) Close Mixed On Coal Prices

Coal companies have been performing somewhat volatile of late, depending on specific results for each company, even though the overall sector has been doing well recently. Coal companies like Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU), Yanzhou coal Mining Co. (NYSE:YZC), International Coal Group, Inc. (NYSE:ICO) and Massey Energy (NYSE:MEE) closed mixed on Friday.

Metallurgical coal prices were mixed last week on the U.S. spot market, with spot prices for low-volatility coking coal dropping $3.12, or 0.9 percent, to $326.88 a ton in the week ended Friday, according to Energy Publishing Inc.. High-volatility coal remained the same at $298.33.

Like any sector, coal companies, even within a high-demand industry, still won't be carried solely by the robust market demand.

Even so, approximately 40 percent of global electricity production comes from coal, and should rise in the years ahead, as coal consumption is expected to increase at a rate of 2.5 percent annually over the next 20 years, according to Research and Markets.

It could even be more than that, as evidenced by the 5 percent increase in 2010, according to the EIA. It adds that 2011 coal consumption should remain about level, and in 2012 should jump by between 2 to 3 percent.

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) also recently said coal prices are up over the last year, but are still below the highs attained before the financial crisis in the latter part of 2008, suggesting room to move higher, although the health of the global economy will play a role there.

Coal is still the major fuel for electricity production. Global coal consumption, approximately 6.7 billion tons in 2006, is set to reach close 10 billion tons in 2011.

China produces about 70 percent of its electricity from coal and demand there continues to grow. Demand for coal to fuel power plants will climb to 1.4 billion tons by 2015, according to China Huaneng Group Corp.’s Chief Economist Wu Dawei.

So when you hear the next report attempt to downplay the role of coal, don't believe it. It's as needed and in demand as ever, and similar to the oil peak predictions, is pretty much a joke, as coal has been attempted to be painted in the same way, not taking into account the huge amounts of coal being discovered in China, and other places, and extraction methods that have been improved.

Many coal companies will shine, but they still need to be judged by their individual merits and not expect the ongoing coal demand imply all of them will be winners pulled up by the broader sector.

Massey Energy closed Friday at $64.61, gaining $1.61, or 2.56 percent. International Coal Group closed at $11.00, falling $0.04, or 0.36 percent. Yanzhou coal Mining Co. ended the session at $37.91, up $0.83, or 2.24 percent. Peabody Energy Corporation closed at $65.57, down $0.19, or 0.29 percent.

Coal's Massey (MEE) (ICO) (LLEN) (ANR) (PCX) Trade Mixed

Coal companies have been performing somewhat volatile of late, depending on specific results for each company, even though the overall sector has been doing well recently. Firms like International Coal Group (NYSE:ICO), Massey Energy (NYSE:MEE), L&L Energy (NASDAQ:LLEN), Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR) and Patriot Coal (NYSE:PCX) closed mixed on Thursday, as the market looks for short-term direction.

Like any sector, coal companies, even within the high-demand industry, still won't be carried solely by the robust market demand.

Even so, approximately 40 percent of global electricity production comes from coal, and that could rise in the years ahead, as coal consumption is expected to increase at a rate of 2.5 percent annually over the next 20 years, according to Research and Markets.

It could even be more than that, as evidenced by the 5 percent increase in 2010, said the EIA. It adds that 2011 coal consumption should remain about level, and in 2012 should grow by between 2 to 3 percent.

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) also recently said coal prices are up over the last year, but are still below the highs attained before he financial crisis in the latter part of 2008, suggesting room to move higher, although the health of the global economy will play a role there.

Coal is still the major fuel for electricity production. Global coal consumption, approximately 6.7 billion tons in 2006, is set to reach close 10 billion tons in 2011.

China produces about 70 percent of its electricity from coal and demand there continues to grow. Demand for coal to fuel power plants will climb to 1.4 billion tons by 2015, according to China Huaneng Group Corp.’s Chief Economist Wu Dawei.

So when you hear the next report attempt to downplay the role of coal, don't believe it. It's as needed and in demand as ever, and similar to the oil peak predictions, is pretty much a joke, as coal has been attempted to be painted in the same way, not taking into account the huge amounts of coal being discovered in China, and other places, and extraction methods that have been improved.

Many coal companies will shine, but they still need to be judged by their individual merits and not expect the ongoing coal demand imply all of them will be winners pulled up by the broader sector.

Patriot Coal closed Thursday at $24.53, gaining $0.47, or 1.95 percent. Alpha Natural Resources closed at $53.45, falling $0.44, or 0.82 percent. L&L Energy ended the session at $5.75, jumping $0.75, or 15.00 percent. Massey Energy closed at $63.00, down $0.25, or 0.40 percent. International Coal Group closed at $11.04, rising $0.43, or 4.05 percent.

Alpha Natural (NYSE:ANR), International Coal (NYSE:ICO), Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) Benefit from Japan's Nuclear Issues

Coal miners have been getting a big boost because of rising coal prices, and Alpha Natural (NYSE:ANR), International Coal (NYSE:ICO) and Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) have been among the big beneficiaries, and should bet an even bigger boost because of the demand created from the nuclear problems as a result of the Japan earthquake.

"Coal stocks have generally performed very well in the last six months. This is no surprise, as global coal prices, both thermal and metallurgical, are reaching multiyear highs. We think this momentum will continue in the coming year," said Morningstar.

"The coal industry has benefited from two relatively unlikely events in the last few months. First, in late 2010, torrential flooding in Australia severely disrupted metallurgical coal shipments out of Queensland. As Australia is a linchpin of the global coal trade, this sent Asian coal prices soaring to levels unseen since 2008. Metallurgical coal prices in particular jumped perhaps 40% to over $300 per ton.

"Then, a giant earthquake and tsunami plowed into Japan, severely damaging the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Although the Japanese authorities seem to have the situation under control, the near-meltdown at the plant shook the world's confidence in nuclear power to its core. In the days since the disaster, China temporarily halted its ambitious reactor building program, and Germany peremptorily shut down its pre-1980 plants. Regulators from the United States and Japan are also scrutinizing plant safety and may mandate additional safeguards and increased inspections going forward.

"In the medium term, damage to Japanese nuclear power will slightly increase demand for thermal coal. However, the most profound consequences will be the long-term impact on the global energy mix. All of the upcoming challenges to nuclear power will diminish its contribution to world electricity generation. The shortfall will have to be made up somewhere, and one of the big sources is coal."

That last comment about the diminishing of nuclear power to to generating electricity is ridiculous in my view. No one but the some of those in the developed world have even made comments they're going to change nuclear policies. China and other Asian countries, while performing the obligatory inspections to ensure safe nuclear power, has already said they're going to continue their focus and strategy of using nuclear as a big part of its energy production. Nothing has changed that.

Coal is more likely to be an increasing part of the generation of electricity because of the irrelevance of wind and solar power, which is still a nonsensical and irrelevant energy source, which are extremely limited in being effective and consistent. The price for solar also remains astronomical and countries can't afford to subsidize the sector any longer and are pulling support out from underneath it.

Other coal companies which will strongly benefit from rising prices and increasing demand are Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU), Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) and Cloud Peak Energy (NYSE:CLD).




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Massey's (NYSE:MEE) Options Grow as Blankenship About to Depart

As Massey Energy (NYSE:MEE) CEO Don Blankenship prepares to retire on December 31, many options are available to the company going forward, and evidently more flexibility as well.

Several people close to Massey's situation say just about everything is on the table at this time, from the company selling itself, an acquisition of a smaller competitor, or the company staying as it is.

As far as acquisitions of other companies go, the leading name at this time is International Coal Group (NYSE:ICO). Talks have been going on for some time there, stopped for awhile, and resumed again on the announcement that Blankenship was going to retire at the end of the year.

Talks has ended because the CEO of International Coal, Ben Hatfield, wasn't sure he wanted to work for Massey again. He had worked their previously for 23 years.

Now that Blankenship is leaving, ArcelorMittal SA (NYSE:MT) has expressed a renewed interest in the possibility of acquiring Massey. They didn't' pursue them because of the assumption Blankenship would probably block the attempt. Now they've hired JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) to advise them on what to do going forward.

Another among the several companies interested in purchasing Massey is Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE:ANR).

Massey has about 2.8 billion tons of reserves, with 1.3 billion of that metallurgical coal, which is more profitable as it is used in the production of steel. Prices for met coal have risen by over 60 percent since a year ago.

International Coal (NYSE:ICO), L&L Energy (NASDAQ:LLEN), James River Coal (NASDAQ:JRCC) Lead Coal Sector Last Month

Coal has been hot recently, and leading the sector over the last month have been International Coal (NYSE:ICO), L&L Energy (NASDAQ:LLEN), James River Coal (NASDAQ:JRCC), all increasing by over 20 percent during that time.

Not far behind them is Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL) and Walter Energy (NYSE:WLT), which have surged by 18 percent.

Speculation has been swirling concerning Warren Buffett and Bill Gates being interested in coal, with employees from Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) alleging they were seen looking around at Wyoming coal mines.

The fact that they were vastly outperformed over the last month by their peers and used social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter to get the word out, suggest is may have all been a marketing ploy to generate interest in the company and increase share price through speculation.

International Coal closed Thursday at $8.17, up $0.19, or 2.38 percent. L&L Energy closed at $11.57, down $0.30, or 2.53 percent. James River ended the day at $22.61, falling $0.17, or 0.75 percent.

Walter Energy surged to close at $115.16, up $4.17, or 3.76 percent. Hecla Mining ended the session at $10.44, gaining $0.21, or 2.05 percent.