Barrick (ABX) (BEXP) (ECA) Downgraded on April 26

Shares of Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE: ABX), Brigham Exploration (NASDAQ: BEXP) and EnCana Co. (NYSE: ECA) were all downgraded on April 26 by various brokerages.

BMO Capital Markets downgraded Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) from an “Outperform” rating to a “Market perform” rating.

Stifel Nicolaus downgraded Brigham Exploration (BEXP) from a “Buy” rating to a “Hold” rating.

Ticonderoga downgraded EnCana Co. (ECA) from a “Neutral” rating to a “Sell” rating. They have a price target of $27 on the company.

AU Optronics (NYSE:AUO) Continues to Bleed Losses

Even with low expectations for the quarter, AU Optronics (NYSE:AUO) wasn't even able to meet those, as losses continue to mount at the company.

Ticonderoga says, "AUO reported 4Q10 consolidated sales of NT$102.6 billion (down 17.5% Q/Q). In U.S. dollar terms, 4Q10 sales came in nearly 12% lower sequentially at US$3.52 billion and below our US$3.76 billion forecast. AUO reported an EPS of negative $0.45, much worse than our projection of negative $0.07. Despite reporting the most challenged quarter since 1Q09, we believe that investors are likely to once again search for a bottom in the shares. However, we believe any recovery will be muted as the secular shift toward LCD TV slows and the economics of the panel industry remain challenged. With a slowing secular trend in the LCD market we believe investors are likely to pay an incrementally lower multiple for LCD-related names through each cycle. We continue to remain unexcited by our LCD coverage universe, which also includes LG Display (NYSE:LPL)(Sell) and Corning (NYSE:GLW)(Sell).

"For 1Q11, we are raising our revenue estimate to $3.38 billion from $3.28 billion, and we expect AUO to post a loss of $0.10 per share compared with our previous expectation of a loss of $0.13 per share. For 2011, we are raising our revenue estimate to $14.52 billion from $13.92 billion and increasing our EPS projection to $0.36 from $0.17."

Ticonderoga maintains a 'Neutral' rating on AU Optronics (AUO), which closed Friday at $9.58, down $0.29, or 2.94 percent.

Amphenol (NYSE:APH) Will Perform Strong in Weak or Healthy Economy

Citing their historical performance in varying levels of economic weakness and strength, Ticonderoga said Amphenol (NYSE:APH) is prepared to perform strongly whichever way the economy goes at this time as well.

Ticonderoga says, "Last night (Wednesday), Amphenol announced that the Board of Directors authorized a new 20 million share stock repurchase program that equates to approximately $1.1 billion with the stock at current levels or over 11% of the shares outstanding in 4Q10...If you are a bull on the economy, we expect Amphenol to benefit from improved tech demand trends without the execution risk of its peers. If you were less optimistic on this recovery, Amphenol has proven its ability to outperform during downturns, and the 2008-2009 performance was the most recent example. Over the past eleven years (through booms and busts), Amphenol has managed to grow revenue by nearly 10% annually with 18% pro forma EPS growth. Over the past five years, sales have risen by 14.5% annually and pro forma EPS has grown by 19% per year. Since 1999, operating margins have expanded from 15.9% to 19.7% in 2010. We believe few companies in the tech supply chain or the tech world can boast such consistent growth performance over this time period, which is one of the reasons we believe Amphenol deserves to trade at a healthy premium to its peers and other tech stocks."

Ticonderoga reiterates a "Buy" rating on Amphenol (APH), which closed Thursday at $56.77, up $1.44. or 2.60 percent. Ticonderoga has a price target on Amphenol of $64.

D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) Results a Mixed Bag

Results from D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) from the last quarter was a mixed bag, some of which still lack clarity to make decisions upon.

Ticonderoga says, "DHI’s results showed some items we liked, some we didn’t, and some we need some clarification on before we judge. Net, we like the Orders trends, don’t like the cost trends as much, like the cash dynamics and like the inventory trends...Revenues were a touch better than expected at $790M, down 30% versus our $769M estimate. Backlog conversion finally dropped down to more sustainable levels at 88% versus our 89% forecast.

"Operating Margin was negative 2.2%, which we believe should be more like breakeven with this volume level excluding any impact from extraordinary spec sales. The Gross Margin was 15.6% versus our 16.8% forecast. This result was a drop of 140 bps sequentially. We need some clarity here, as we do not yet know what the primary driver was. If the margin suffered because DHI cleared out 400 specs, we will take it. If it’s meaningfully driven by incentives, we are disappointed with the level. SG&A was 15.5% versus our 12.2% forecast. Bluntly, we made a big gaffe with our estimate. Last quarter, SG&A was higher, on higher revenues, than on our forecast for this quarter. We have no excuse for our forecast. However, DHI’s SG&A as a percentage of sales was still too high, as it likely should have been 100 bps or more lower, given the revenue stream."

Ticonderoga maintains 'Buy' rating on D.R. Horton (DHI), which closed Wednesday at $12.81, down $0.43, or 3.25 percent. Ticonderoga has a price target of $13 on D.R. Horton.

Legg Mason (NYSE:LM) Very Vulnerable to Market Turn Says Ticonderoga

With outflows soaring at Legg Mason (NYSE:LM), Ticonderoga sees Legg Mason (NYSE:LM) as being extremely vulnerable to a turn in the market.

Ticonderoga says, "LM reported net long-term outflow of $16.2 billion or decay of 12%, the highest in a year. Fixed income had outflow of $13 billion, the worst in a year while equity had outflow of $3.3 billion...Flows are getting worse. If the markets were not up as much as they were, this Company would be struggling a lot more. Relative to other managers, LM is very vulnerable to a turn in the market."

Ticonderoga reiterates a "Sell" rating on Legg Mason (LM), which closed Wednesday at $33.75, losing $1.86, or 5.22 percent. Ticonderoga has a price target of $28 on Legg Mason.

NVR's (NYSE:NVR) Homebuilding Revenue to Drop 2.3 Percent

NVR Inc.'s (NYSE:NVR) struggles will continue throughout 2011, although Ticonderoga remains high on the ability of the management team to execute.

Ticonderoga says, "Aside from a meaningful market-driven decline in Orders, albeit against a difficult comparison, we expect continued strong execution from the management team at NVR. With the equity up 12.9% year-to-date versus a 4.9% increase for the group, certainly investors see little reason to disagree. Were it not for the company’s premium valuation, the company’s performance decidedly deserves consideration of a more constructive rating...We forecast EPS before charges at a Street-high $8.69 per share, which is down nearly 10% YoY. The consensus, which may or may not include charges, is $7.38 per share.

"We expect a 2.3% decline in Homebuilding revenue to $713M, driven by an 8% decline in Closings to 2,340, based on a 74 basis point decline in the company’s Backlog Conversion Rate to 61.7%. We expect Closings ASPs of $305K (+6.5% y/y). On a year-over-year basis, we expect revenue to decline for the first half of this year until the tax credit’s positive impact on Closings in 2010 is anniversaried...With regard to profitability, we expect the Operating Margin to decline 49 bps YoY to a group-leading 9.6%, while improving roughly 130 basis points sequentially."

Ticonderoga maintains a "Neutral" rating on NVR Inc. (NVR), which closed Wednesday at $784.22, down $0.51, or 0.06 percent.

Molex Incorporated (NASDAQ:MOLX) Shows Some Upside Strength, but Limited

Molex Incorporated (NASDAQ:MOLX) looks to be operating inline with estimates, but according to Ticonderoga, does have some upside strength, although it will be limited in their view.

Ticonderoga says, "Looking into 3QFY11, Molex expects sales of $850-$890 million compared and pro forma EPS of $0.39 to $0.43 (Street at $0.40). At the mid-point of the outlook, sales are expected to decline by 3.5% Q/Q (vs. 13-yr average of down over 2%). For 3QFY11, we are raising our revenue estimate to $878 million from $863 million, while maintaining our pro forma EPS projection at $0.42. For FY11, we are raising our revenue estimate to $3.587 billion from $3.55 billion, while raising our pro forma EPS estimate to $1.80 from $1.79."

Ticonderoga reiterates a "Neutral" rating on Molex Incorporated (MOLX), which was trading at $26.64, up $1.30, or 5.13 percent, as of 2:56 PM EST.

Corning (NYSE:GLW) Soars on Revenue, EPS Guidance

Shares of Corning (NYSE:GLW) took off as the company raised their revenue and EPS estimate outlook.

Ticonderoga says, "Overall, Corning's revenue outlook is above our estimates and the Street and Corning benefits from a 15% tax rate versus the 20% the company discussed in early December that adds approximately $0.02 to EPS, by our calculations. Gross margin is expected to be slightly higher sequentially in 1Q11. Corning does not give a direct revenue and EPS outlook. For 1Q11, telecom sales are expected to be flat sequentially, while Environmental Technologies sales are expected to be flat. Specialty materials sales are expected to rise 20-25% sequentially on Gorilla glass, and Life Sciences is expected to rise slightly. Our estimates and price target are currently under review."

Ticonderoga reiterates a "Sell" rating on Corning (GLW), which closed Tuesday at $21.21, gaining $1.57, or 7.99 percent.

Range Resources (NYSE:RRC) Marcellus Shale Results Exceed Expectations

Drilling results for Range Resources (NYSE:RRC) in the Marcellus Shale exceeded expectations says Ticonderoga, but gas prices will keep it from having any meaningful impact on the company in 2011.

Ticonderoga says, "While we have been expecting a strong reserve report from RRC on the back of improving drilling results in the Marcellus Shale, today’s release from the company show results in the Marcellus are better than expected...Our view is that, while we were expecting a relatively strong reserve report, it would be difficult for RRC to move to a premium to the group over the next two quarters given our bearish view on gas prices. Today’s results certainly suggest that RRC’s 2010 reserve growth will be considerably higher than many of its peers, but the impact on relative valuation is unclear. RRC’s proved reserves are still 80% gas weighted and will not benefit from any price improvement as our 2011 gas price outlook is unchanged from 2010. Meanwhile our oil price deck has moved from $80/bbl to $90/bbl, meaning oil weighted E&P’s with strong reserve growth could see a stronger move in NAV."

Ticonderoga reiterates a "Neutral" rating on Range Resources (RRC), which closed Tuesday at $46.54, down $0.18, or 0.39 percent.

Corning (NYSE:GLW) Will Best Revenue Estimates, But Nowhere to Go

While Corning (NYSE:GLW) should easily beat revenue estimates in the fourth quarter, the overall LCD sector continues to look anemic, with very little in the way of catalysts, and that will continue to weigh on companies with heavy exposure to LDCs for the foreseeable future.

Ticonderoga says, "We believe that Corning will handily beat our 4Q10 revenue estimate of $1.48 billion and exceed the Street estimate of $1.60 billion, while beating our EPS estimate of $0.47 (Street is also at $0.47). We did not adjust our model for the upside Corning discussed at its wholly owned LCD glass and environment technologies businesses that positively impacts sales, nor the downside in SCP and the tax adjustment that impacts earnings. Corning's adjusted view (12/8/10) had a minor impact to earnings, in our view. Corning's revised expectations for 4Q10 calls for LCD glass volume at its wholly owned subsidiary to rise by 10% sequentially, while volumes at SCP are expected to fall by 5-10% sequentially. Keep in mind, LG Display (NYSE:LPL)(Sell) is a customer for SCP and last week reported a 10% Q/Q uptick in LCD panel volume during 4Q10 but inventories fell by 11% Q/Q and pricing declined 11% Q/Q. Large-size unit shipments for our Taiwan LCD Barometer rose 3% Q/Q in 4Q10."

Ticonderoga reiterates a "Sell" rating on Corning (GLW), which closed Monday at $19.64, gaining $0.31, or 1.60 percent. Ticonderoga has a price target of $12.25 on Corning.

Amphenol (NYSE:APH) an Attractive Buy at Current Levels Says Ticonderoga

Amphenol (NYSE:APH) appears ready to deliver a solid year, now that their latest quarterly results have come in after the prior blow out quarter they had.

Ticonderoga says, "Amphenol reported 4Q10 sales of $949.9 million (flat Q/Q) that slightly exceeded our estimate of $943.1 million (Street was at $947.9 million), while pro forma EPS of $0.74 was ahead of our $0.73 estimate (the Street was also at $0.73). This 4Q10 sales performance was well below historical seasonal trends due largely to Amphenol delivering a much better than average September quarter (i.e., and the best Q/Q growth in over a decade), combined with disappointing trends in the broadband business due to weakness at cable operators. With 4Q10 results now in the rear view mirror and our expectations for healthy performance from Amphenol in 2011, we believe the stock represents an attractive buy at current levels.

"For 1Q11, we are raising our sales estimate to $932.8 million from $914.6 million and increasing our pro forma EPS projection to $0.71 from $0.69 (the Street is at $0.69). For 2011, we are raising our revenue projection to $3.95 billion from $3.87 billion and pro forma EPS to $3.06 from $3.00 (the Street is also at $3.00). "

Ticonderoga reiterates a "Buy" rating on Amphenol (APH), which closed Thursday at $52.40, down $0.49, or 0.93 percent. Ticonderoga raised their price target on Amphenol from $60 to $64.

F5 Networks (NASDAQ:FFIV) Still Needs Upside Surprises to Maintain Share Price

Before the latest earnings report from F5 Networks (NASDAQ:FFIV), Ticonderoga said the company will need more earnings surprises in order to maintain their soaring share price. They didn't get it, and unless they do again in the future, F5 will being to operate at a much lower multiple.

Ticonderoga says, "Last night, F5 Networks reported record sales of $268.9 million in 1QFY11 that was well below our estimate of $283.9 million, while pro forma EPS of $0.88 also came in lower than our estimate of $0.93. As such, F5's 1QFY11 results were marginally below the Street's revenue projection of $270.6 million while pro forma EPS was above the Street's pro forma EPS estimate of $0.83. We warned in our earnings preview that F5 would need to continue delivering big upside surprises to support the stock price and with only a mediocre quarter, F5's stock was down 22% in after market trading last night.

"Looking into 2QFY11, F5 expects moderate growth with sales of $275 million to $280 million, with pro forma EPS of $0.84 to $0.86. We are decreasing our 2QFY11 revenue estimate to $287 million from $307.6 million and reducing our pro forma EPS projection to $0.93 from $1.03. We are also cutting our fiscal 2011 revenue estimate to $1.21 billion from $1.28 billion and pro forma EPS estimate to $4.02 from $4.40."

Ticonderoga reiterates a "Neutral" rating on F5 Networks (FFIV), which trading at $108.00, down $30.78, or 22.18 percent, as of 1:22 PM EST.

Ticonderoga Securities on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Steve Jobs

Now that things look like they're settling down after the incredible announcement by Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs that he would be taking another medical leave of absence, followed by a blow out quarterly performance by the company, it may be time to look at what analysts like Ticonderoga Securities are saying about the shocking news.

Ticonderoga Securities: "If the stock goes into a significant downturn in the coming weeks on this news and/or further developments in the future, we believe Apple would be wise to tap into its $51 billion net cash position (as of the end of FY10; we estimate $70.8 billion by the end of FY11) for a significant stock repurchase or a generous cash dividend. We wish Steve Jobs the best of luck in his recovery, and hopefully, he is back in the saddle at Apple before long."

Ticonderoga Securities reiterates a "Buy" rating on Apple (AAPL), with a price target of $550 on the company.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Gets Crazy $550 PT from Ticonderoga

Just about every analyst seems to have weighed in on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in response to their amazing quarterly results Tuesday, with the most exuberant being Ticonderoga, which raised their price target on Apple to a Street high of $550.

Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White said, "Despite Monday's news regarding Steve Jobs' medical leave of absence, we believe it will difficult to keep Apple's stock from making new highs given the much stronger than expected quarter and outlook reported by the company last night. With the stock now trading at just over 11x our conservative CY11 EPS estimate (ex-cash), we believe there is plenty of upside left in the stock price and we are raising our 12-month price target to $550.00."

The prior price target of Ticonderoga was $450, the high end of the majority of other price target estimates.

Another major factor cited by White was the growing success of Apple in China, where he says they have "clearly caught Apple Fever."

Ticonderoga is boosting their second quarter 2011 revenue projection from $19.73 billion to $22.75 billion and increasing their EPS estimate from $4.15 to $5.13.

For fiscal 2011 they are increasing revenue estimates from $88.50 billion to $102 billion and raising their EPS estimate from $19.01 to $23.36.

Apple was trading at $343.89, up $3.23, or 0.95 percent, as of 11:46 AM EST.

D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Other Homebuilders Reviewed by Ticonderoga

Noting the upcoming earnings season for homebuilders, Ticonderoga has reviewed a number of companies, including their Buy-rated D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI), Lennar (NYSE:LEN) and KB Home (NYSE:KBH).

Ticonderoga says, "With the fourth quarter earnings season ramping next week for the homebuilders, we want to step back and review our calendar 2011 outlook for the group. Given a positive 19.3% performance in December compared with a 6.5% increase in the S&P, followed by a 13.3% increase to-date this month, investors are decidedly looking optimistically toward the builders’ prospects for 2011 and, more specifically, the impending spring selling season, which starts in earnest in February. Improved valuations, not improved fundamentals, have driven the rise in the equities, which now trade at 1.3x (ex-NVR) our favored present valued adjusted BV multiple and at 1.08x (ex-NVR) historically comparable book values, which adds back DTA valuation allowances. Absent improved fundamentals in February, March and April versus our expectations, we believe the equities have become over-extended in the near term, although still reasonably valued longer term, as the economy starts its recovery. A sustained march toward the group’s 1.6x historical BV measure will likely not occur without a healthier buyer demand scenario.

"Entering this year, we have 3 Buy, 1 Sell and 5 Neutral rated equities in our homebuilder coverage. Additionally, we have one paired trade in place. With respect to our Buy-rated names—D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) and KB Home (NYSE: KBH)- KBH is our top pick at the moment given its significant cost reduction progress and its discount valuation to the group (7% and 26%, respectively, on book value metrics above). While the first half of 2011 will likely prove challenging for the company given its low backlog, we continue to project solid profitability in 2011 and 2012. In our opinion, this should allow the equity to close the valuation gap versus its peers. Similarly, we believe risk appetite within the space will increase this year, with KBH best positioned, outside of the speculative bankruptcy risk builders, to capitalize on this shift in investor sentiment. MDC (NYSE: MDC), our lone Sell-rated equity, appears set to fundamentally underperform the group by a wide margin, in our opinion, given its industry-high cost structure. Other than a much lower valuation, we need to see a useful reduction in the company’s SG&A expense ratio prior to giving consideration to a more constructive rating. While shorting any builder may be difficult in this somewhat euphoric environment, we believe MDC has the fundamental headwinds and stout valuation to pair up with virtually any other builder we cover. For our specific paired trade, we are long KBH and short PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM). Given the above-mentioned discount valuation to the group for KBH and a premium valuation for PHM, we believe investors will be rewarded as the respective gap for each dissipates driven by improved fundamentals at KBH and continued struggles for PHM as it attempts to capitalize on its acquisition of CTX."

D.R. Horton (DHI) was trading at $13.00, down $0.33, or 2.48 percent, as of 11:56 AM EST. Lennar (LEN) was at $19.99, down $0.50, or 2.44 percent., KB Home (KBH) was at $15.14, down $0.32, or 2.07 percent.

Legg Mason (NYSE:LM), Artio (NYSE:ART), Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN) Get Look from Ticonderoga

Ticonderoga Securities has given their take on the outlook for Legg Mason (NYSE:LM), Artio Global Investors (NYSE:ART) and Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN) today.

Ticonderoga says, "Lowering Legg Mason (LM) on Higher Transaction Charge, Raising Outlook Modestly; Reiterate Sell. We are lowering our FQ3'11 GAAP EPS estimate to $0.33 from $0.40. The revision is reflective of higher transition-related expenses than previously modeled. Note the driver of the increase stems from severance payments to David Odenath, former head of Americas, who has since left the company. Reflective of better equity markets, we are raising our EPS estimates adjusted for restructuring. FQ3'11 is now $0.43 without restructuring, while FQ4'11 is now $0.48. Our calendar 2011 EPS estimate is now $1.73 without restructuring compared with $1.69 previously. We are modeling long-term outflows of $10 billion compared with $12.4 billion last quarter. We are also raising our price target to $28, or 14x our annualized March 2012 estimate."

"Raising Artio Global Investors (ART) Estimates on Market, But Relative Performance Continues to Pose Biggest Risk; Reiterate Sell. We are raising our Q4’10 and 2011 EPS estimates slightly to $0.42 and $1.68, respectively, from $0.41 and $1.61 previously. We are initiating a 2012 EPS estimate of $1.73. The increase for Q4’10 is largely driven by a higher than expected average AUM for the period. For Q4’10, we expect net outflows of roughly $3bn; this will likely be the worst quarter for flow since ART has been public. We believe that real risks are emerging for institutional flows. Three-year metrics are usually the barometer for institutions. According to Morningstar, ART’s two key international AUM strategies are in the bottom 13% and 36%, respectively. Any near-term turn in the equity markets and this stock is very vulnerable, in our opinion"

Franklin Resources (BEN) Remains Top Long; Reiterate Buy. Following BEN’s AUM release on January 10, we raised our calendar 2011 EPS estimate to $8.30 from $8.19 reflective of the 2.4% AUM beat vs. our expectations. Our price target is $135, or 16.3x our calendar 2011 EPS estimate; we are looking for $1.92 in FQ1'11.

Legg Mason was trading at $35.57, down $0.53, or 1.47 percent, as of 12:45 PM EST. Artio Global Investors was trading at $15.16, down $0.18, or 1.17 percent. Franklin Resources was at $120.53, losing $0.68, or 0.56 percent.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Lands Street High Price of $450 From Ticonderoga

We're only a few days away from the highly anticipated release of Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) latest quarterly report, and the mania is getting so great that Ticonderoga Securities has offered up a price target on Apple of $450, and the average price target for Apple from analysts stands at $398.

of 54 analysts covering Apple, 49 have a "Buy" rating on the stock, with the remaining five having a "Hold" on the company. No analyst has a "Sell" on Apple at this time.

Ticonderoga says, "We believe Apple would be well suited to announce the iPad 2 before the end of January in an effort to persuade consumers to wait for the new iPad that we believe will be launched in March/April. Additionally, we believe Apple is in the process of refreshing its MacBook Pro line and an announcement could be in the cards."

Apple closed Friday at $348.48, gaining $2.80, or 0.81 percent.

EnCana (NYSE:ECA) Should Move Up Leading to JV Decision with China National Petroleum

Even though EnCana (NYSE:ECA) has been down over the last year on lower natural gas prices, it's expected that they'll push up leading to an announcement one way or the other on whether the deal will go forward.

Ticonderoga says, "Shares of EnCana Corp. (ECA, Neutral) had a strong move yesterday on speculation of a pending joint venture (JV) between ECA and state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC). In June 2010, the two companies had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to explore JV options in British Columbia’s (BC) Horn River and Montney Shale gas fields, and it appears a deal could be imminent. We would view the potential JV as a short-term positive for ECA and would expect the shares to outperform in the period leading up to the announcement...ECA’s shares are down 12% over the past 12-months as weak natural gas prices have taken a toll on the company. ECA’s proved reserves and current production are 96% gas weighted, and low gas prices have slashed operating margins (EBITDA/Mcfe: 2009 $5.43, 2010e $3.71, 2011 $3.44) and cash flow.

"We currently estimate ECA’s 2011 cash flow at $4.2B, which is $1.2B short of our projected capital spending of $5.4B."

Ticonderoga reiterates a "Neutral" rating on EnCana Corp. (ECA), which was trading at $31.28, up $0.59, or 1.92 percent, as of 1:42 PM EST.

Cogo Group (NASDAQ:COGO) Tablet Revenue Accelerating on Growing Customer Base

The tablet revenue for Cogo Group (NASDAQ:COGO) is increasing quickly based on a growing customer base, said Ticonderoga.

They noted, "This morning (Wednesday), Cogo announced that its tablet revenue is 'accelerating faster than expected' due to the combination of an increase in Cogo's tablet customer base and a faster rate of growth in China's tablet market. With the ramp of China's mobile Internet expected to accelerate in 2011 in light of a more robust 3G infrastructure, more attractive price points on 3G phones and a growing app ecosystem, we believe tablets will increasingly become popular in China in 2011 and beyond. Additionally, most of the leading China-based smartphone, notebook/PC and consumer electronics companies have developed tablets that we expect will also enjoy strong export demand in the coming years... Given the robust trends at leading China-based OEMs during our recent China trip, we believe our 4Q10 revenue estimate of $107.7 million and pro forma EPS estimate of $0.23 is conservative."

Ticonderoga reiterates a "Buy" on Cogo Group, which closed Wednesday at $8.82, down $0.04, or 0.45 percent. Ticonderoga has a price target of $12.50 on COGO.

Legg Mason's (NYSE:LM) Slow Asset Growth Makes Valuation Dubious

The valuation of Legg Mason (NYSE:LM) appears high, says Ticonderoga, citing their slow asset growth in comparison with the rest of the industry.

Ticonderoga said, "Total AUM came in at $671.8 billion, up 0.6% from last month. This was $3 billion better than our estimate. It looks like fixed income AUM came in better by about $2-3 billion. For the quarter, we estimate total net outflows from long-term products of $10 billion compared to $12.4 billion last quarter. Total AUM was down 0.3% from the end of September 2010.

"LM trades at 21x our calendar 2011 estimate, which is adjusted for restructuring charges and cost synergies. This represents a 23% premium to the industry. We continue to struggle with the valuation considering how drastically LM asset growth lags the industry and the continued lack of investment toward growth."

Ticonderoga maintains a "Sell" rating on Legg Mason, which closed Wednesday at $35.68, gaining $0.47, or 1.33 percent. Ticonderoga has a price target of $27 on them.