Thursday, February 3, 2011

Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX) Costs About to Soar?

On the earnings call of Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) on Wednesday, CEO Jeff Bewkes hinted the company isn't getting paid what it deserves from Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX), suggesting there's a strong possibility they're going to extract a higher price soon.

Bewkes noted, "It’s getting kind of clear that the acceleration and consumer usage of these kinds of services, including Netflix, makes it a good time for us to reevaluate the terms. In our view, the current pricing and window are not really commensurate with the value that those kinds of availabilities of our films are extracting. So we can’t really be more specific at this time. We just think that value that film companies or our film companies should get for that period of exhibition is considerably higher than what is there now."

Commenting on what Bewkes had to say, Jefferies analyst Youssef Squali said, “While NFLX management has so far successfully calibrated content deals to margins and rapidly accelerating subscriber growth, a significant increase in content costs could limit the number of content deals struck and in turn slow subscriber growth and impact churn rates.”

If Bewkes is saying this, you can be sure the rest of the major media companies are thinking the same thing.

Netflix is beginning to face pressures it hasn't had to deal with in the past, not only with the deals being struck, but now the emerging commodity-like direction the industry is taking, where companies like Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) could stream video at lower prices than Netflix could.

The unabated run to the top is now over for Netflix, and they'll have to start competing at a level they haven't had to in the past.

When streaming becomes the primary way movies and TV shows are consumed, it'll be much harder for Netflix to differentiate, and price will become the determining factor in using a provider. That doesn't bode well for Netflix, although it'll take time to play out.

Netflix was trading at $212.26, up $1.00, or 0.47 percent, as of 12:52 PM EST.

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