Thursday, August 20, 2015
Emerging markets are in disarray, as are developed markets like Japan. Asia as a whole is under enormous pressure, and the latest Empire State Manufacturing report revealed U.S. manufacturing is slowing down as well, partly from the strength of the U.S. dollar.
With a currency war going on in Asia, as countries compete to boost exports, it's difficult to see how American exports can gain any traction.
Media stocks have also been taking a pounding, based primarily upon Disney's (DIS) ESPN losing a "moderate" amount of subscribers. That most likely points to a period of even more disruption, which many investors have been monitoring since the growth of the streaming video market.
Many retailers have also underperformed, especially those with a presence in malls; although Wal-Mart (WMT) has been getting crunched as well.
Add to that the underemployment in the U.S. and dubious employment numbers, and you have the makings of another perfect storm that could push the price of gold above the $2,000 an ounce market - possibly much higher, depending on how the parts of the whole hold up.
Gold and silver could be poised for a major move. I don't see how this weak economy can hide the devastating impact of endless quantitative easing, or how GDP can continue to improve when major trading partners are under economic siege.
I don't think this time around the strength of the U.S. dollar will be able to hold back the upward move once it takes hold. We could even see measures taken - possibly in the form of more quantitative easing (to hide the fact the Fed is once again entering the currency wars) - to lower the value of the dollar against competing currencies.
Either way, gold is beckoning, and it's a matter of when, not if, it starts to soar once again. I'm positioned for it in my portfolio. Are you?