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Gold Surprises for the Week - Silver Also Up

Gold once again pushed past the $1,300 per ounce mark this week, surprising most of the market. Silver followed suit, closing in on the $17.50 level.

Gold down as demand for safe assets plummets

Dollar recovery pushes gold down from one-year high

Friday's 13-month high that North Korea did not conduct a missile test.

Demand for safer assets, including gold, was also weakened after hurricane Irma wreaked less damage than feared in Florida.

Gold jumped last week because of the fear trade.

"Both of these events failed to materialize in a major way," said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

"The short term stage has been set for some consolidation.

Much depends on where the dollar and bonds decide to go."

Hedge Funds Now Bullish On Gold

Institutional investors, including hedge funds, have reversed their aversion to gold, as they are now betting on the precious metal to move up again, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

On August 18 they surpassed gold futures and options contracts betting against gold by 18,454, said the CFTC. A week before bears had 2,794 futures and options contracts than gold bulls.

Much of this came from the stock market crash in China, and was heightened further by Chinese exports plunging by 8 percent, pointing toward the country probably being in the early stages of a recession. It also generated questions as to how healthy China's economy has really been, and whether or not the data reported was even less accurate than had been believed.

Japan has also been struggling, along with the rest of Asia. Countries more heavily reliant on natural resources, such as Canada and Australia have also been suffering a reversal in fortunes, as commodity demand has been falling.

All of this is happening in the midst of a currency war, as many nations with significant export markets fight to weaken their currencies in order to boost exports.

Recent numbers from media also show that sector is under strain, with ESPN losing a moderate number of subscribers.

Taken together this has increased the probability the Fed will hold off on raising interest rates. That's likely to play out that way, and if things get worse, we may not even see a bump up in the interest rates.

Combined with a strong U.S. dollar, which is starting to put pressure on U.S. exports, as data from the New York Fed recently stated that region of the country failed to meet expectations, it would be very surprising to see a change in interest rates by the Fed.

Things are falling apart so quickly, it's hard to see how gold prices can be suppressed going forward. Instead of an interest rate hike, we may be seeing talks of another round of quantitative easing instead.

Gold About to Rally Big Time?

It looks like a lot of negative catalysts are coming together to provide the foundation for a major gold rally.

Emerging markets are in disarray, as are developed markets like Japan. Asia as a whole is under enormous pressure, and the latest Empire State Manufacturing report revealed U.S. manufacturing is slowing down as well, partly from the strength of the U.S. dollar.

With a currency war going on in Asia, as countries compete to boost exports, it's difficult to see how American exports can gain any traction.

Media stocks have also been taking a pounding, based primarily upon Disney's (DIS) ESPN losing a "moderate" amount of subscribers. That most likely points to a period of even more disruption, which many investors have been monitoring since the growth of the streaming video market.

Many retailers have also underperformed, especially those with a presence in malls; although Wal-Mart (WMT) has been getting crunched as well.

Add to that the underemployment in the U.S. and dubious employment numbers, and you have the makings of another perfect storm that could push the price of gold above the $2,000 an ounce market - possibly much higher, depending on how the parts of the whole hold up.

Gold and silver could be poised for a major move. I don't see how this weak economy can hide the devastating impact of endless quantitative easing, or how GDP can continue to improve when major trading partners are under economic siege.

I don't think this time around the strength of the U.S. dollar will be able to hold back the upward move once it takes hold. We could even see measures taken - possibly in the form of more quantitative easing (to hide the fact the Fed is once again entering the currency wars) - to lower the value of the dollar against competing currencies.

Either way, gold is beckoning, and it's a matter of when, not if, it starts to soar once again. I'm positioned for it in my portfolio. Are you?

The U.S. Dollar Going Forward, and How to Best Play it

There has been some confusion among those interested in the U.S. monetary policy and why the U.S. dollar has remained strong even as the Federal Reserve created enormous amounts of money out of thin air. Under normal conditions that would have put downward pressure on the value of the greenback.

read more on U.S. dollar

Gold and Silver Now Legal Tender in Arizona

Arizona state senators voted to allow gold and silver to be used as legal tender in the state.

Privately minted gold and silver will now be given the same authority and status as paper money in Arizona. That means the residents of Arizona will be able to pay their bills within the state boundaries using the two precious metals.

Along with Arizona, other states have already implemented or are looking into similar proposals. While the constitution doesn't allow states to create their own currencies, there is nothing to suggest a state can't allow coins minted by private companies to be used as legal tender.

There was some additional drama in the process of confirming the bill, which came of course from a Democrat, this one being someone named Sen. Steve Farley from Tucson,

I will hand him this, he got it right on when he attacked the approval of the proposal, seeing how it makes the failing U.S. dollar look. Farley said, "I believe the bill itself ridicules our financial system." Right you are Steve. It does all of that for sure.

What he's of course referring to is the implementation of an alternative underscores the disastrous and monstrous policies of the Federal Reserve and Ben Bernanke, where they work together to debase the currency in the name of saving the economy.

The inclusion of gold and silver as a currency, every day points to these failed policies and teaches those willing to listen that Keynesianism is dead, and printing or digitizing endless amounts of dollars to prop up an economic system that should be allowed to flush itself out so it can be really healed, is what people like this Farley oppose.

In order to work out the details of the initiative, the effective date to implement gold and silver as legal tender in Arizona was pushed out till after the 2014 legislative session.

Gold Futures Drop as Investors Take Profits

After a couple of days of gold futures surging, investors decided to take some profits off of the table, as gold for April delivery dropped $19.80, or 1.2 percent, to close at $1,595.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Some media outlets suggested it was positive macroeconomic data out of the U.S. and Europe that resulted in the downturn, but that's doubtful after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated he has no intention of stopping stimulus measures, which of course confirms the extreme fragile global and American economy.

Another thing is any investor that believes in any way that Europe has anything positive economically to base an investing decision upon, is setting themselves up for failure, as Europe is and will continue to be an economic basket case no matter what positive spin the financial media attempt to put on it.

For example, some news reports said gold futures fell because Italian political parties are starting to work on the possibility of forming a government. So what? Italy is working on forming a government. That's meaningless. Italy is going to have a government no matter what the news reports say. So the idea is put forward that they are working on it is considered news and a reason for gold investors to sell. That would mean gold investors bought gold because there were concerns over whether or not Italy would form a government. It's irrelevant of course.

Britain also continues to be an economically challenged area, where its economy contracted by 0.3 percent from the last quarter.

The only positive economic news in the United States continues to be the housing sector, where pending home sales in January were up a little more than expected. Other than that, most of the economic news in America is dismal.

Durable goods orders were reported as having fallen in January, a nod towards extremely weak manufacturing sector. Durable goods orders in the U.S. plunged 5.2 percent last month, where economists were looking for a drop of about 4.0 percent.

As for currencies, the euro U.S. dollar rose to $1.3101. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, was also down on the day.

Will Gold Jump Soon, or Do We Have to Wait a Little Longer?

The little games being played by the Federal Reserve in having comments alleging it may quit printing before it reaches its unemployment goal, is a hoax of course, as since the latest round of endless stimulus, nothing at all has improved in that regard, making it not only unlikely to happen, but points towards the Fed trying to manipulate the markets because it knows the response it would have to the minutes from the meeting they fed us.

With that in mind, it's possible in regard to the price movement of gold, that the usual move it has made over the last several years may not happen as quickly this year. Normally the weakest gold has been from 2010 through 2012 has been during the months of February to April, which by that time it has started to gather strength.

That could definitely happen again this year, but there has been so much money thrown into the economy, that it could result in it taking a little longer to transpire in 2013.

So while there are some that are pushing investors to put their money in industrial metals, it could pose some danger over the long haul, but could be a good move in the short term.

The problem is the sentiment could quickly turn over the next several months, and to get caught when it turns negative could cause some painful downturns. At this time we're already seeing some cracks in the economic dam after the robust beginning of the year, and it appears there is nothing that will change that any time soon.

No matter what the Fed says, there is no way in this weak economic climate it's going to stop making funny money.

What the minutes of the Fed probably are meant to do is try to shore up the dollar while helping consumers by trying to push down prices. The effect won't last for long.

The bottom line is gold prices could jump as they have over the last several years sometime in the next month or so, or it may be on pause for a little longer. Either way, the price of gold will go higher, as all the fundamentals remain in place for it to do so.

Gold Drops on Draghi's Comments

For better or worse, what comes out of the mouth of European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi can move the markets, and that's the case Thursday with gold, the euro, and the U.S. dollar.

The euro zone has foolishly been kept in the back of minds of many investors, as the mainstream media has been extremely lax in its understanding and reporting on the condition of the region. Much of that is based upon the desire for social engineering by radicals and the Obama Administration, which is trying hard to take the focus off the dangerously weak global economy and on many irrelevant side issues, which are starting to look circus-like in nature in comparison to the challenges we economically face.

What drove most of the response from the market were the comments that there are more negative risks in Europe than there are positive ones. That resulted in the euro plummeting almost 1 percent against the U.S. dollar.

Even though Draghi said he thinks economic activity will be stronger in the latter part of 2013, that largely fell on deaf ears because it's far less likely because of the negative risks he sees.

Another comment from a different source, this time Federal Reserve official Jeremy Stein, concerning the fact that low interest rates could produce risks to financial stability, also weighed on gold and silver.

Gold futures for April delivery settled at $1,671.30 an ounce, dropping $7.50 an ounce.

Gold Prices in QE3 Environment

Now that Ben Bernanke and the FOMC have implemented another round of quantitative easing - one that could go on indefinitely with the promise to purchase $40 billion in mortgaged-backed securities on a monthly basis - gold and silver prices are about to go ballistic, as there's absolutely nothing in the way now to keep them from resuming their upward climb.

Gold shot up by over $38 an ounce on the news, while silver climbed over 4 percent in response to the highly anticipated move, which was more aggressive than thought by most.

The U.S. dollar is about to reverse directions, set to weaken in response to the stimulus move.

As for gold in general, there is nowhere for prices to go except up, at least until there is a reversal in job numbers in the U.S., which could take years to improve if we are to measure it by the prior response to QE1 and QE2 by the U.S. economy.

What has been a volatile and unsure economic environment because of there being no response from the Fed in the recent past concerning more stimulus, has now become much more stable in the sense of knowing what is coming from the central bank in the near and long term.

That will result in investors moving into commodities in droves as they seek to protect their assets from inflation and the falling value of the U.S. dollar.

In the short term we'll also see a big boost in the equity markets, but that has a lot more risk to it with stimulus than commodities do.

Barrick Gold jumped, trading at $1.50, up 3.78 percent, as of 2.51 PM EDT. Silver Wheaton was at $38.22, up 2.00, or 5.52 percent, as of 2:52 PM EDT. Goldcorp (GG) was trading at $45.17, up $2.11, or 4.90 percent. First Majestic Silver was at $21.91, up $0.87, or 4.13 percent.

Is Gold About to Soar?

It may be time to get into gold again before the hoard starts pushing up the price and we end up chasing it for a much higher entry point.

This isn't built upon the idea of a possible stimulus happening sometime soon - although that would give it a nice push upwards - but rather upon how gold has been performing against major currencies.

Usually when gold is up against the majors, historically, not long afterwards it enters into a positive growth stage in price.

That has just happened over the last month, so gold should be poised for another upward run.

The good news is people are still largely negative on gold other than in relationship to the inevitable and upcoming implementation of QE3. But by time that happens everyone will be throwing money at gold and those late in the game will lose a lot of profits.

Obviously the key to making more money is to get in early.

With gold certain to soar again based upon stimulus measures alone, the inclusion of this currency signal, which has been historically wildly accurate and predictable, we could be on the verge of a huge upturn in gold.

And when the stimulus comes soon afterwards, it's unknown how high it could potentially go.

The currencies that gold is up against are the yen, U.S. dollar, British pound and the euro.

Merrill Lynch Predicts $2,000 Gold

With expectations the Federal Reserve will be forced to provide another round of quantitative easing, Merrill Lynch said they see the price of gold jumping to $2,000 an ounce.

According to Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Commodity & Multi-Asset Strategy Research at Merrill, he sees the Fed adding up to $500 billion more to its asset-purchasing program sometime in the second half of 2012.

Blanch said this on Squawk Box:

"We think that $2,000 an ounce is sort of the right number. We believe that ultimately the Fed will be forced to do quantitative easing. If it happens in September, as our economists expect, we will get a rally sooner in gold. If it happens after the election, we will get the rally a little bit later; probably we will touch $2000 an ounce sometime next year."

Many high profile investors concur with the bullish view on gold, as they assert the Federal Reserve and other central banks won't be able or willing to refrain from attempts at "stimulating" their economies, even though it had done nothing to help in the past.

That points to eventual inflation, which favors gold, silver, and other commodities which trade in U.S. dollars, which will also eventually plunge from its temporary lofty position.

Some people even think that when Ben Bernanke talks to Congress next week about the economy that he could at that time announce another stimulus package.

Since the U.S. dollar has risen to fast and high recently, Bernanke could in fact make a move next week, as he favors a weak dollar as his tactic for attempting to alleviate a recession.

Another factor on the U.S. side is the presidential election, where the horrible American economy threatens the reelection of Obama. There will be pressure behind the scenes to make it look like something is being done to address the issue in order for Obama to look good.

More stimulus is a certainty. It's only a matter of when, not if. At that time the price of gold will soar again, pulling up many other commodities with it.

Barrick (ABX) (EGO) (NEM) Jump Monday

After starting off strong on Monday, gold futures were up and down the rest of the session, closing the day at $1,588.70 per ounce for June delivery, down slightly from Friday's close.

Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Eldorado Gold (NYSE:EGO) and Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) all finished up on the day, as the U.S. dollar fell against the euro.

It appears gold is ready to move up again after it dropped to $1,527 an ounce last week, the lowest level in 2012. That reversed significantly when gold traders scrambled to cover their short positions.

Expectations are when gold prices move slightly above $1,600, investors will jump back into the gold market.

Even so, the volatility of the price of gold because of the perceived safety of the U.S. dollar, which has been strengthening of late, along with the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, has investors jittery, and most are buying on dips until they get more clarity.

It's highly probable the greenback will weaken sometime soon, as it's a flawed currency itself, although it's been strong against the euro lately because of the financial crisis in the euro zone.

The question is whether the U.S. dollar will rebound yet again as the euro falters in full view of the world.

If it does, it makes gold more expensive for other currencies, putting even more downward pressure on it.

Until the crisis in Greece is resolved, we'll see this being the ongoing scenario. Much of this is now driven by headlines.

China's Gold Strategy

There are a lot of theories being thrown around as to why China is acquiring so much gold. Everything from a failing economy to diversification are part of the media narrative.

I don't think it's primarily related to those or other assumptions, although the there is probably some truth to the diversification element of the story.

At bottom though, it appears China is positioning itself to enhance its currency, and make it much more desirable to the world, as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken because of the horrendous policies of the government and endless printing of U.S. dollars by the Federal Reserve.

With the U.S. dollar inevitably going the way of the British Pound, as far as being the reserve currency of the world, China, no doubt, wants to embrace that role with the renminbi.

This appears to be the reason the country is encouraging its citizens to acquire gold, and why it's importing so much even while it mines gold domestically at record levels.

China has a much longer timeframe than America and the West, and they'll be content to continually acquire gold in preparation for the eventual migration of the world to the renminbi as the reserve currency. It's only a matter of when, not if.

Gold, Silver Would Be Legal Tender Under Colorado Bill

If a bill sponsored by Colorado Sen. Kent Lambert, R, passes, it'll make Colorado the second state in the nation to recognize gold and silver as currency. Utah is the first and only state at this time to recognize gold and silver as a medium of exchange.

The growing movement of states to move in this direction is precipitated by the out of control spending of the Obama administration and the ongoing creation of money out of thin air by Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve.

That combination always ends up weakening the value of the U.S. dollar, or any currency where that is the standard practice of leaders of a country.

Along with the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, Senator Lambert also noted the growing public debt as a reason behind recognizing gold and silver as currency in the state.

Colorado is one of a dozen states in the U.S. to consider allowing gold and silver coins to be once again used as legal tender.

Cameron (CAM) (TSO) (ECA) (KOG) (CWEI) Trade Down on Slowing Oil Demand

Oil companies and other industry-related companies Tesoro Corporation (NYSE:TSO), Encana Corp. (NYSE:ECA), Kodiak Oil & Gas (Amex:KOG), Clayton Williams Energy (NASDAQ:CWEI) and Cameron International (NYSE:CAM) all closed down Wednesday as oil prices took a breather.

Oil prices dropped after a government report showed that inventories are growing as demand softens in the U.S. Benchmark crude for June delivery was down $1.81 to settle at $109.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In other NYMEX trading for June contracts, heating oil fell 4.78 cents to settle at $3.143 a gallon, gasoline futures lost 0.69 cent to $3.3225 a gallon and natural gas was lower by 9.4 cents to $4.644 per 1,000 cubic feet.

The U.S. dollar index shrunk 0.15 percent to $73.01, down from Tuesday's 73.127 close. The dollar index has fallen 7.5 percent so far in 2011.

Cameron International (NYSE:CAM) closed Wednesday at $48.70, falling $2.09, or 4.11 percent.

Kinross (KGC) (GSS) (AU) (AUY) Close Down as Gold Breaks Another All-Time Record

Gold and silver prices are continuing their upward move, even as gold miners Golden Star Resources (AMEX:GSS), Yamana Gold (NYSE:AUY), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) and Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE:KGC) all closed down, as it seems investors took some profits as the yellow metal continued its upward run.

Gold closed at a new high, jumping $5.30 to settle at $1,509.10 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold had ended the session above $1,500 for the first time last Thursday.

Today's Gold trading had the Globex June Gold contract trading at $1519.20 before a profit taking sell-off mid to latter part of the trading session.

Silver prices soared to a 31-year high again, settling at $47.15, up $1.09 for the day, or 2.4 percent. April silver futures in New York traded as high as $49.10 an ounce but dropped to close at $47.15 mark.

The more active May silver contract soared just shy of the $50 level, trading as high as $49.82 before falling back.

An incredible number of silver and gold contracts were sold Monday, reaching 109,000 for gold and 199,000 for silver. Silver prices were volatile, moving in a $4.18 range.

The majority of this is based upon the collapsing U.S. dollar, tightening in China, sovereign debt crisis in Europe, unrest in the Middle East, deepening inflation and consequences of the Japanese earthquake.

The DXY index of the U.S. dollar's value against a basket six other major currencies dropped 0.2 percent to 73.99, its lowest level since August 2008. It's down 6.4 percent so far in 2011.

NovaGold (NG) (AUY) (IAG) (NXG) (MFN) Close Mixed Thursday as Gold Prices Break New Record

Gold futures hit another record high on Thursday, as gold gold for June delivery settled up $4.90 at $1,503.80 an ounce on the Comex. That was a new settlement high. The contract also reached an intraday high at $1,509.60 an ounce earlier in the day. Gold miners Yamana Gold (NYSE:AUY), NovaGold Resources Inc. (AMEX:NG), IAMGOLD Corporation (NYSE:IAG), Northgate Minerals (AMEX:NXG) and Minefinders (AMEX:MFN) closed mixed Thursday as most have been running up with the breaking of gold price records on a daily basis recently.

Silver settled at a 31-year high just over $46 an ounce. The most active Thursday silver contract, for May delivery, settled at a record $46.059 a troy ounce, up $1.598 or $3.6 percent.

The front-month contract, for April delivery, settled up $1.597, or 3.4 percent, at $46.062 a troy ounce, a 31-year high. Silver is quickly approaching its record high of $50.36 an ounce, set in 1980.

A collapsing U.S. dollar continues to be a major part of the gold and silver price story, as the U.S. government refuses to cut spending and limit its size, while the Federal Reserve endlessly has its digital printing presses running, pushing down the value of the greenback.

The dollar index .DXY fell 0.4 percent to 74.092 after falling to 73.735, its lowest level since August 2008.

Other important factors include tightening in China, sovereign debt crisis in Europe, sovereign debt crisis in America, unrest in the Middle East, deepening inflation and impact of the Japanese earthquake.

The weak U.S. dollar and inflation concerns increased the attraction of gold. Spot gold XAU= hit a record high at $1,508.75 before cutting gains, while spot silver XAG= jumped to a 31-year high at $46.68 an ounce.

Spot gold prices rose during the first quarter from $1,380 an ounce on January 3 to $1,430 on March 31.

Minefinders closed Thursday at $16.76, jumping $0.24, or 1.45 percent. Northgate Minerals ended the day at $2.90, climbing $0.02, or 0.69 percent. IAMGOLD Corporation closed at $20.51, gaining $0.43, or 2.14 percent. NovaGold Resources Inc. ended the session at $13.29, falling $0.30, or 2.21 percent. Yamana Gold closed at $12.77, dropping $0.03, or 0.23 percent.

Exxon (XOM) (WTI) (RRC) (HNR) Close Up as Oil Prices Explode

Shares of Harvest Natural Resources (NYSE:HNR), Range Resources (NYSE:RRC), W&T Offshore (NYSE:WTI) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) closed up on Wednesday as oil prices surged in response to news oil inventories unexpectedly dropped.

Oil prices exploded on Wednesday to roar above the $111 a barrel mark, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels for the week ending April 15.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May delivery for West Texas Intermediate crude rose $3.17 or 2.93 percent to reach $111.45 a barrel.

The weakness of the U.S. dollar helped boost a number of commodities, including oil, as the U.S. dollar index dropped 0.91 on Wednesday.

Home heating oil prices increased 6.29 cents to $3.2214 a gallon. Reformulated blendstock gasoline prices rose 4.42 cents to $3.2773 a gallon.

Henry Hub natural gas prices jumped 4.8 cents to $4.31 per million British thermal units.

The national average price of unleaded gasoline climbed to $3.837 a gallon Wednesday, up from Tuesday's $3.835, according to AAA.

Exxon Mobil closed Wednesday at $85.99, up $1.85, or 2.21 percent. W&T Offshore closed at $22.75, gaining $1.20, or 5.57 percent. Range Resources ended the trading session at $52.95, rising $0.38, or 0.72 percent. Harvest Natural Resources closed at $14.49, jumping $0.34, or 2.40 percent.